NCAA Basketball Mailbag: Duke without Zion, coach on the hottest seat and more
By Brian Rauf
What are the biggest NCAA Basketball questions you have this week? We answer them all in this week’s Mailbag.
The NCAA basketball season has officially hit its stretch run, as we’re exactly one week away from the start of March – the greatest month of the year.
This is the time of year for upsets, close games, and buzzer beaters, and we’re finally seeing the sport’s marquee matchups on the court. Michigan and Michigan State will meet for the first time over the weekend and the first UNC-Duke game of the year was on Wednesday – both of which are way too late in the season.
Of course, the big story to come out of UNC’s 88-72 win over Duke was Zion Williamson’s injury, which everyone and their mother has heard about by now (just ask Nike what happened to their stock on Thursday). The good news out of Duke is that Williamson’s injury is a minor knee sprain and he’s listed as day-to-day, meaning we should see him back on the court sooner rather than later.
And no, he’s not going to sit out to protect his NBA Draft stock.
We have a loaded mailbag this week, starting with Zion’s injury and what it means for Duke moving forward. Let’s get to it.
Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.
I don’t think so. We saw against UNC how limited Duke’s offensive attack is without him, as R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish were the only players who were legitimate threats to score.
The problem is that I don’t know how the favorite would be instead of Duke. Do you trust Virginia to make a long run like that? Is Gonzaga good enough to? Maybe Kentucky or North Carolina?
The good news is that it seems like he’ll be back on the court soon, in which case Duke is still the favorite. But, without him, they have no shot.
None. Luckily, Williamson’s injury isn’t too serious so even if Duke decides to be extra cautious (which they should), he’d only miss a week or two.
Let’s say Duke loses two or even three games in that time frame. It would drop them on the overall seed line but no one has as many wins over top 15 teams this season as the Blue Devils. The committee will also weigh those losses differently since Zion wasn’t available.
They may not be the No. 1 overall seed but I have a hard time believing they won’t be on that top line.
Zion could not play another game this year and it would still be him. He has been a force unlike anything we’ve seen in college basketball since maybe Kevin Durant – and there aren’t any real contenders behind him. Grant Williams has fallen off over the last week and Markus Howard, while great, likely wouldn’t be able to overtake the big lead Williamson has.
This has been The Season of Zion so the only fitting ending is for him to win Player of the Year.
Who are you taking for defensive player of the year and coach of the year? – Hayden Miller (@hbmiller27)
Zion’s in the conversation, but I’d go with Washington’s Matisse Thybulle, who is averaging a crazy 3.5 steals and 2.2 blocks per game. He’s not a huge offensive threat but he’ll make an NBA roster because of his defense.
For Coach of the Year, I think it has to be Houston’s Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars only have one loss and he has turned them into a legitimate top 10 team, which no one saw coming at the start of the season.
Oh yes. Nevada has a ton of experience, depth, quality guard play, and good defense – all of which are usual indicators of a long NCAA Tournament run. But their big weakness comes behind the arc, where they only shoot 34.2 percent as a team.
I don’t have a doubt that this will come back to bite the Wolf Pack – you have to be able to shoot and score to win, after all. However, it’s just a matter of when. I think they’re too talented to lose in the first weekend but, depending on the matchups in their region, I think that flaw will keep them from reaching the Final Four.
The ACC. I think the SEC gets three in Kentucky, LSU, and Tennessee but the ACC will get at least four. Duke, UNC, and Virginia are all locks in my mind with one of Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville, or Syracuse making it as well.
Let’s say they get red-hot, don’t lose again, and win the Big Ten Tournament. I think that would put them as one of the higher three-seeds. They’re likely sitting on the five-seed line right now and I simply don’t know if there’s enough room for them to move into the top two (especially if Houston keeps winning).
The bubble is so weak this year that if you’re on the wrong side right now, you’re in real trouble. Georgetown is one team I really like if they were to get it because of their young talent, but I could only see them winning one game at most (and I don’t think they’ll actually make the tournament).
As much as I hate to say it, it’s probably Florida. I think the Gators have been terrible all year and haven’t deserved to be on the bubble, but their win over LSU might have put them in. They have a quality coach, a good deal of raw talent, and tournament experience, giving them a better chance than everyone else in their position.
It’s probably Tim Miles at Nebraska, but I still think we should look at Andy Enfield. I know USC has a top recruiting class coming in next year that they don’t want to jeopardize but, given the program’s underachievement last year, this season’s disaster, and their involvement in the FBI investigation, it’s hard for me to imagine him feeling safe.
In terms of mid-majors, Chris Mooney is as good as gone at Richmond. There’s even a billboard calling for it.
I’m taking Kentucky. I really like this Marquette team and Markus Howard is probably No. 2 in the National Player of the Year race behind Zion, but the Wildcats are the more talented, more well-rounded team. If they played 10 times, I think UK would win seven or eight.
In terms of balance, it’s probably Gonzaga. They go fairly deep with players who would start for pretty much anyone. Kentucky would be in that mix as well.
That said, it’s hard to look past a healthy Duke team. With Zion, they have enough scoring options and perfect complementary players to make them the No. 1 team. It’s just a fragile balance that gets thrown off if the National Player of the Year isn’t there.
It depends on what happens in the Big Ten Tournament but I don’t think so. They have some big wins and have been very competitive of late, but they were so bad early in the year that it will hurt them here.
As for Jon Scheyer, he’ll definitely be a candidate but not a frontrunner. Duke will look after established head coaches with ties to the program like Steve Wojciechowski, Bobby Hurley, or Jeff Capel. Scheyer would only come into play if those three (and others) turned the Blue Devils down.
No, Indiana doesn’t – I don’t think the NIT will throw them a bone given how bad they have been in the Big Ten. I’ll go with Georgetown winning (assuming they don’t make the Big Dance, of course). They’re a talented team trending in the right direction and would actually want to be in the NIT, which is half the battle.
I don’t think so. They lack quality wins and there isn’t another one out there on their way to 25. I think they have to win the A-10 Tournament.
Yes. I’ll go with the SoCon since Wofford is an at-large lock and there are too many other good teams that can win the conference tournament (East Tennessee State, Furman, UNC-Greensboro), but the OVC has a good case with Belmont and Murray State. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if both of those conferences received multiple bids.
Can you show Chris Clemons some love in your next mailbag? – @Ppuro31
Yes. He hit 3,000 career points over the weekend and is one of the most fun players to watch in the country. I highly recommend finding a way to watch the Big South Tournament because, unless Campbell wins that (which they probably won’t), we won’t get to see the nation’s best scorer in the NCAA Tournament.
In the meantime, enjoy his crazy YouTube mixtape.