NCAA Basketball: Who sits in the “30+ Club” of efficiency?

There are not many elite teams in NCAA basketball. Which teams, though, are in the top tier of efficiency with a 30+ margin?

If NCAA basketball fans were asked to name the “top tier” of teams in the sport this season, there would, of course, be a variety of answers. But  I’d venture to guess that Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga would be among the most popular. Most of the analytics rankings reflect this as well, as KenPom, for example, has Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke all in the top-3.

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and bracketodds and are up to date through the games completed on Feb 23.).

Not only are these three teams consistently rated No. 1-3, in some order, the “computers” seem to also think these teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. For example, only four teams on KenPom have an “adjusted efficiency margin” (essentially reflects how good a team is) >= 30.0:

–Virginia (35.50)

–Gonzaga (34.67)

–Duke (34.38)

–Michigan St (30.22)

The efficiency gap between the top three and MSU is fairly significant, and after the Spartans, there is no team with a rating above 29.0. By these metrics, it certainly seems as if these teams are the best in the country. But without the proper context, there’s no way of knowing (1) how they compared to other “elite” teams of the past and (2) how teams with similar ratings have fared in past NCAA Tournaments. I decided to look at how many teams with “30+” KenPom ratings there have been in each season going back to 2001-02. Note, I used team ratings heading into the NCAA Tournament.

It looks as if “30+” teams have been fairly rare. The season that jumped out was 2014-15, which featured five such teams. Interestingly, however, the national champion that season, Duke, wasn’t among these teams, as the Blue Devils entered the tournament just outside the threshold at 29.30. So how predictive is the “30+ Club” of NCAA Tournament performance?  I looked back at the KenPom efficiency ratings of each “30+” team and how they fared in March.

Among the 25 “30+ teams”: 

-One (4%) lost in the 1st round

-Four (16%) lost in the round of 32

-Three (12%) lost in the Sweet 16

Six (24%) lost in the Elite 8

Three (12%) lost in the Final 4

Three (12%) lost in the Championship Game

Five (20%) won the Championship

Otherwise stated, 44% of teams made it to at least the Final 4, 68% made it to at least the Elite 8, and 32% didn’t make it past the Sweet 16. On the whole, these teams have averaged 3.40 wins in the tournament, a strong number, but only slightly better than the 3.35 wins the average 1-seed have averaged.

But what about the “elite of the elite“? Virginia, Duke, and Gonzaga currently have rankings well above 30.0 (35.50, 34.38, 34.67), so I decided to look at how teams have fared that had ratings >=33.0.  Only six teams qualified, but the results were very strong. 1/6 fell in the Sweet 16, 1/6 fell in the Final 4, 3/6 fell in the Championship Game, and 1/6 won the Championship. These teams averaged 4.50 tournament wins.

“Elite” teams underperform every tournament, and this go-round will inevitably bring more of the same. But if their ratings hold up, there may be a reason to have an added level of confidence in Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga this March.