Bracketology Projected Field: Kentucky on the top line, Villanova falling

First four teams OUT of the field

Arizona State Sun Devils

I know most bracketologists have Arizona State in their projected fields at the moment but there are a few issues I have with their resume. Of course, their 4-1 record in Q1 games is tremendous but that is the only thing carrying an otherwise disappointing record. In fact, the Sun Devils have three losses in Q3/4 and their NET rating of 63 is lower than most other teams in my field. In order to get firmly into my projected field, the Sun Devils will likely need to win each of their three remaining conference games and that will not be easy considering all of them will be on the road against KenPom top-80 teams.

Clemson Tigers

Despite the idea that quality metrics love Clemson, it is really hard to keep them in the field. This is due to the fact that the Tigers own just one quality win on the year and their Q1+2 record sits at a disappointing 4-11. Sure, they might not have any bad losses but all we have really learned is that the Tigers would be a first-round exit in the Big Dance. Clemson has dropped three of its last four games and winning down the stretch in the ACC is never easy. They do, though, have a relatively favorable remaining schedule.

Saint Mary’s Gaels

I think all bracketologists can agree that it blows our mind to be considering Saint Mary’s at this point in time. To put it simply, the Gaels have as many Q3 losses as they do Q1+2 wins and it is unreal that they are still in consideration. Their record (19-10, 10-4 WCC) is far from spectacular and they lost their biggest game of the year (at Gonzaga) by 48 points. Yet, SMC’s metric rankings are excellent and that definitely warrants consideration. In order to make the dance, though, they will need a win over Gonzaga somewhere.

Furman Paladins

Furman might be the mid-major team that most general college basketball fans want to see in the tournament most at this point. With that said, though, their resume just does not warrant that kind of consideration, in my opinion. They are relatively close to the field but there just aren’t enough opportunities for them to get into the dance without making the SoCon championship game. Both their resume and quality metrics average out to be over 60 and they are 1-5 in Q1 games. That likely won’t cut it, especially when you consider they have a Q4 loss as well.

Next Four Out: Dayton, Georgetown, San Francisco, Nebraska

That concludes this edition of my bracketology projected field. I hope that you enjoyed and that your favorite team was able to secure a bid. If not, there is still time to make a run and if you are that far off…better start hoping for the automatic bid in the conference tournament! My next update to the field will come out on Friday, March 5 so stay tuned.