Duke Basketball: Can Blue Devils overcome their jump shooting woes for March?

Duke Basketball is viewed as the favorite for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. But could their shooting issues hold them back?

A typical reason (or excuse) for a team being upset in the NCAA Tournament is a poor shooting night. Teams will have their off nights shooting, but in the win or go home structure of college basketball’s national championship, one bad night spells the end of the season. But what about this season’s Duke team that rarely has a strong shooting night from the perimeter yet is favored by many to cut down the nets.

Can Duke overcome its jump shooting woes to string together six straight victories in the tournament?

Let’s play blue devil’s advocate and assume Zion Williamson will be 100% (and play) come tournament time. R.J. Barrett and Williamson are prolific at getting to the hoop and finishing, but they will need their supporting cast to knock down kick-outs or teams will collapse down on them. For a top-tier team, Duke is historically bad on catch-and-shoot jump shots.

Duke is only scoring 0.82 points per catch-and-shoot attempt in the half court on 27.4% shooting, ranking 348th and 350th in the nation. It is unheard of how successful Duke has been this year on such poor shooting. The Blue Devils average 13 missed catch-and-shoot attempts each game, 11th most in the nation. Their saving grace from having empty trips on the offensive end is their proficiency on the offensive boards.

Duke’s 377 offensive rebounds this season ranks 6th overall and that 13.96 offensive rebounds per game clip eats up a lot of those perimeter misses. The Blue Devils are 1st overall in offensive rebound put back scoring with 9.9 put back points per game. A healthy Williamson is key to that success with 90 total offensive rebounds for 3.5 offensive rebounds per game.

History is not on Duke’s side when it comes to post-season success for poor perimeter shooting teams. In the last four NCAA tournaments, only two teams made it to the Final Four while averaging less than 1.0 points per catch-and-shoot attempt.

South Carolina averaged only 0.993 points per catch-and-shoot attempt in 2016-17 and North Carolina scored 0.945 points per catch-and-shoot attempt in 2015-16. Both were far better marks than Duke’s 0.820 points per catch-and-shoot attempt this season.

Both teams ultimately fell victim to much stronger teams from the perimeter, but they still managed to put together four wins to make it to the Final Four. North Carolina added a fifth victory, but a Kris Jenkins’ catch-and-shoot 3-pointer at the buzzer was the difference maker in the title game.

South Carolina made up for their perimeter shooting deficiencies with their suffocating defense. North Carolina’s run in the tournament in 2015-16 is most analogous to what Duke will try to accomplish this season.

That North Carolina team ranked 285th in catch-and-shoot efficiency. They made up for it by dominating the offensive glass. The Tar Heels led the nation with 568 offensive rebounds and ranked 3rd in the nation with 9.9 offensive rebound put back points per game. Brice Johnson led the team with 2.9 of Carolina’s 14.2 offensive rebounds per game.

Williamson has been responsible for an even bigger share of his team’s success on the offensive glass with 3.5 of Duke’s 13.96 offensive rebounds per game. He also converts those rebounds at a terrific rate scoring 1.477 points per put back possession, the highest efficiency among high volume players with 60 or more put back possessions.

Duke can survive an off night from the perimeter, but not with an off night on the offensive glass.