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America East Basketball: Vermont and Stony Brook battling for league supremacy

By Daniel Benjamin

MILWAUKEE, WI - MARCH 16: Vermont
MILWAUKEE, WI - MARCH 16: Vermont /
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MILWAUKEE, WI – MARCH 16: Darren Payen #12 of the Vermont Catamounts attempts a shot in the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at BMO Harris Bradley Center on March 16, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WI – MARCH 16: Darren Payen #12 of the Vermont Catamounts attempts a shot in the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers during the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at BMO Harris Bradley Center on March 16, 2017 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

Prediction

Vermont is the overwhelmingly favorite to win the conference once again. The Catamounts have the best player in the conference, Lamb, along with the most successful and experienced squad. The Cats are given a 96.3% chance to win the conference regular season title, by Team Rankings. It really wouldn’t be surprised if they won both of their remaining games.

While the upcoming Vermont-Stony Brook matchup is the de facto regular-season championship game, the Seawolves must be careful not to get tripped up by UMBC.  The Wolves game versus the Retrievers is probably going to be the better game than them versus the Catamounts. The only thing is that the Retrievers are not very good on the road and three of their four conference setbacks have come away from home.

Stony Brook also has a tough game to close the regular season as they have to go to Hartford, which the Seawolves have been given a slightly better than 41% chance of winning the game. Hartford has won four of five and is 8-3 at home this season.

Vermont is also heavily favored to claim the conference tournament title. If the Catamounts do take the title, it would be there seventh this century which is the conference’s most during this span. Albany has won five tournament championships (last title in 2015). Stony Brook, UMBC and Hartford are also expected to reach the semifinals of the tournament.

No team seeded lower than fourth has won the America East Tournament title. Since 1983, the No. 1 seed (81-14) has won 22 titles and made the finals 28 times. Teams seeded No. 2 (69-25) has won 11 championships. Meanwhile, No. 3 seeds have claimed one title, and No. 4 seeds have won two crowns.

The America East has never had two teams receive an NCAA Tournament bid. That trend will likely continue in 2019. Vermont is the only team that has a slight chance to earn an at-large bid, but for that to have any chance of that to happen they would have to win their two regular season games and then reach the conference tournament’s championship title game.

Next. Top 25 Individual runs in NCAA Tournament. dark

Prediction: Vermont will win both the regular season and conference tournament title. Therefore, they won’t need an at large bid to get into the Tournament. However, if they don’t claim the AEC Tournament title, the Catamounts will not be going to the Big Dance.

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