NCAA Basketball Mailbag: Bubble talk, potential Cinderella’s and more

What are the biggest NCAA Basketball and NBA Draft questions you have this week? We answer them all in the first Mailbag of March!

It’s officially March, and this week’s NCAA Basketball Mailbag certainly has an NCAA Tournament flavor.

This is the biggest mailbag of the season and we touch on a variety of topics, including the status of some bubble teams like NC State, Minnesota, and Indiana, mid-majors to watch, players who could be breakout stars, and much more.

But first, let’s jump right in with Kentucky, who is arguably the hottest team in the country, and the metrics that can help determine which teams will make long runs in the Big Dance.

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.

I think a healthy Duke teams wins it all, but Kentucky isn’t far behind. They’re in my group of five teams that I think are the only ones that can win a championship. You can find out why here.

Non-stats wise, two common factors of every team that makes a long run is that they have quality guard play and at least one player who can a) create a shot for himself and b) get a bucket when the offense breaks down.

I have found this stat to be very interesting and helpful: since 2002, every national champion has ranked in the top 22 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency AND in the top 40 in adjusted defensive efficiency with the 2014 UConn team as the only exception. That shows that, to make a long run, you must have balance. Look for that opposed to a team that only dominates one area because when that area fails, teams have to fall back on something else to win.

I don’t have any confidence in saying this but I’ll go with Michigan State. I think both will make the second weekend and then get bounced in the Sweet 16. However, the consistency of the Spartans makes them less vulnerable to an upset. Michigan’s offense still scares me given the awful stretches they tend to go through. That might burn them in the first weekend.

In the hunt? Yes. I still think they’d be on the outside looking in but they’d be back in the conversation – which is simply mind-boggling. It’s all about the high number of Quadrant 1 wins for the Hoosiers, and that will carry them in the bubble conversation. But, first, they have to get back into the conversation. Beating the Spartans would do that.

Zero. Despite his struggles, Langford will still be a lottery pick or, worst case, a top 20 pick. I think he needs another year of college and Indiana certainly needs him but going that high in the NBA Draft is too good of an opportunity to pass up.

Any chance @UCLAMBB goes after a more established current coach like Few, Chris Mack, or Tony Bennett?

Yes. They’ve already been linked to Bennett and will go after all three after the season officially ends. I expect all three to say no, but UCLA is shooting for the moon. They also want to take a look at Billy Donovan, even though I don’t see any way that happens, either.

I don’t think we’ll see Rick Pitino in college again unless it’s at a mid-major program that’s simply looking for a relevancy boost. UCLA has said they’re not looking at him and Pitino has said that he’s not interested in UNLV (Why? I don’t know. It’d be perfect.). My thoughts have been that we won’t see him again, but crazier things have happened.

Regular season wise, yes. They’ve already gotten past Duke and beat UNC on the road. Plus, you know they’re not the kind of program to have completely off games. UVA is in control right now given the schedule UNC has coming up.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow