Bracketology Projected Field: Virginia holds top spot, VCU rising

Selection Sunday is quickly approaching. With another exciting weekend approaching, where does our bracketology projected field of 68 stand?

March Madness has begun. With conference tournaments getting underway around the nation, the madness is only just starting and college basketball season is reaching its best point of the year. This also means that bracketology season is heating up by the day. Teams are, for the most part, settled into their current positioning but that does not mean that time has run out for movement within the field.

For this particular bracketology field, I want to bring light to two teams: Virginia and VCU. Two of the best programs from the Old Dominion state, both the Cavaliers and Rams have posted strong seasons so far this year and they are rising in their respective positions within my projected NCAA Tournament field. For head coach Tony Bennett and UVa, this team has not moved up my field, per se, but they have solidified their position as my No. 1 overall seed. With Duke and the SEC leaders dropping games as of late, I find it hard to believe that UVa could lose that top spot in the coming weeks.

They also proved why during this past week with their flamethrowing second half against Syracuse. I’m just not sure there is a single team in the country playing better right now (maybe Gonzaga) and this team seems poised to break the stigma that the Cavaliers are “always an early exit in the Big Dance.” It is time for everyone to buy in on the idea that Virginia should be the NCAA Tournament favorite right now.

Just 75 miles away, though, is a dark horse team with the potential to shock the nation. Similar to another former Cinderella program (Butler), VCU has gone through its fair share of coaching turnover as of late. But in just the Rams’ second season under head coach Mike Rhoades, this team is trending towards a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. VCU has won nine consecutive games and they are clearly a class ahead of the rest of the Atlantic 10. Now starting down a potential No. 8 seed by my bracketology, the Rams are emerging as a serious threat for a deep run. Just like their in-state major conference counterpart, this team is tremendous on the defensive end of the floor.

Projected Field of 68

Due to limited time for me this week (I have midterms and projects before Spring Break), this field is not bracketed nor organized by regions/geography. With that said, though, this update does show each seed line with those respective teams listed. I have considered this as an alternate way of showing the field in the past and thought now would be a good chance to give it a shot. Additionally, please note that the automatic bids on this field are indicated by italics while being awarded to those teams with the highest seed for each conferenced.

This field was updated prior to games played on Tuesday, March 5.

No. 1 Seeds: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Tennessee

No. 2 Seeds: North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State

No. 3 Seeds: LSU, Houston, Purdue, Texas Tech

No. 4 Seeds: Kansas, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Florida State

No. 5 Seeds: Wisconsin, Kansas State, Iowa State, Mississippi State

No. 6 Seeds: Maryland, Villanova, Buffalo, Wofford

No. 7 Seeds: Cincinnati, Nevada, Auburn, Louisville

No. 8 Seeds: Ole Miss, Baylor, Iowa, VCU

No. 9 Seeds: Washington, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Syracuse

No. 10 Seeds: UCF, St. John’s, Texas, NC State

No. 11 Seeds: Florida, Utah State, Minnesota, TCU

No. 12 Seeds: Belmont, Alabama, Arizona State, Seton Hall, Temple, Lipscomb

No. 13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Old Dominion, Hofstra, Vermont

No. 14 Seeds: UC Irvine, Yale, South Dakota State, Texas State

No. 15 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Radford, Montana, Loyola-Chicago

No. 16 Seeds: Colgate, Iona, SHSU, Norfolk State, PV A&M, St. Francis (PA)

State of the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Florida, Utah State, Minnesota, TCU

Last Four In: Alabama, Arizona State, Seton Hall, Temple

First Four Out: Indiana, Creighton, Clemson, St. Mary’s

Next Four Out: Furman, UNC Greensboro, Toledo, Xavier

While many might say the bubble is weak this season, I lean more towards the idea that the bubble is small. To put it simply, there are just not that many teams who are realistically close to reaching the Big Dance field at this point in time and that leads to a couple of different results. First, bracketologists such as myself are likely to score well on picking teams to make the Big Dance. By the time Selection Sunday rolls around, it could be reasonable to think that every bracketologist will correctly select at least 66/68 teams.

With that said, arguably the four most controversial resumes are currently the first teams out of my field. Indiana, Creighton, and Clemson hold strong enough metric rankings and SOS rankings to be considered for the field but they have also missed several opportunities. Saint Mary’s definitely holds some of the same qualities as these other teams but they have made their rise due to performing incredibly well against teams that are less talented than them. The Gaels have otherwise disappointed in their biggest games of the year.

That concludes this edition of my bracketology field. I hope that you enjoyed and that your favorite team was able to secure a spot. If not, there is still time to make an at-large case for some teams while others will, of course, have their opportunity for securing the automatic bid from their respective conference tournament. This next month is the most exciting of the entire sporting year (at least in my opinion). March Madness has officially begun.