NCAA Basketball: Turnovers, rebounding hurting Iowa State and Maryland

Both Iowa State and Maryland haven’t looked great the last few weeks. Each has a statistical weakness that is arguably the biggest reason why.

Iowa State and Maryland have both had stretches of the season where they’ve looked like Top 10-15 teams. Things have taken a turn lately, however, as the Cyclones and Terrapins have lost 5/7 and 3/5 respectively. Why the struggles?

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the games completed on March 9.).

Iowa St

At 251st in the country per KenPom, Iowa State has struggled with defensive rebounding all season. Lately, however, the Cyclones have looked even worse in this respect. Cam Lard’s absence the last two games might explain some of this, but the problems clearly run deeper. Here are the results over Iowa State’s last seven games, including their opponents’ offensive rebounding rankings/percentages and their offensive rebounding percentages vs. the Cyclones.

The Cyclones played four games against top 100 offensive rebounding teams and went 0-4. In these losses against TCU (twice), Baylor, and West Virginia, their opponents averaged an offensive rebounding percentage of 41.5%. For reference, the #1 team in the nation in terms of offensive rebounding rate is Portland St at 38.7%. So essentially, these teams are walking into games against Iowa State as the best offensive rebounding team in the nation. Iowa State’s one “great” game in this stretch came on the road against a Kansas State squad that is just average in offensive rebounding.

To be fair though, Iowa State’s problems definitely span beyond defensive rebounding struggles. The Cyclones recently suffered a loss to Texas in which the Longhorns didn’t grab offensive rebounds at an elite level. But it’s worth mentioning the Longhorns shot out of their minds (15-25, 60%) from three, so maybe there was nothing the Cyclones could do.

So what to take from all this? If Iowa State goes up against a really good offensive rebounding team, I likely won’t have too much confidence in them. But as much as their defensive rebounding issues likely aren’t going away, not every matchup will be equally problematic in this regard. If the Cyclones get matched up in the NCAA Tournament against some so-so offensive rebounding teams, I think they’re very capable of making some noise.

Note: Iowa State hosts red-hot Texas Tech this Saturday. The Red Raiders are only 149th in offensive rebounding, so maybe the Cyclones will play better? 

Maryland

At 273rd in the country, Maryland has struggled all season with turnovers. Lately, however, things have been even worse (sense the familiar theme?). Here are the results over Maryland’s last five games, including their opponents’ defensive turnover (TO) rankings and their defensive turnover percentages (TO%) vs. the Terrapins.

Maryland has faced some average-to-above average teams in terms of defensive TO%, but have still turned the ball over more than maybe any team in the nation. In this stretch, the Terrapins are averaging a TO% of 22.6%. Excluding the most recent Michigan game, the percentage is 24.4%.  Over a whole season, this would put Maryland at ~334th (22.6%) or ~351st (24.4%) in TO%.

Maryland’s problems have spanned beyond turnover issues, however. Over the last 5 games, the Terrapins have been struggling from three a bit, shooting 27.3% (Michigan), 42.9% (Iowa), 35.3% (Ohio St), 10.5% (Penn St), and 30.0% (Michigan). Michigan and Penn State have arguably the two best 3-point defenses of these opponents, so perhaps that explains some of this.

So what to take from all this? Unlike Iowa State, Maryland’s issues don’t seem to be purely matchup dependent, as the turnover struggles have come against teams that aren’t elite in forcing turnovers. Still, there will be some matchups that are more favorable in this regard. It’s a little concerning, however, that Maryland is only a combined 2-5 against Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Purdue, none of whom are better than 110th in defensive TO%. Obviously these were all tough opponents, but they should theoretically have been decent matchups for Maryland, at least when it comes to their TO issues. Putting specific matchups aside, perhaps Maryland is simply a class below these teams (KenPom rankings would agree with this).

Note: Maryland hosts Minnesota on Friday. The Golden Gophers are only 278th in defensive TO%, so maybe the Terrapins can close out the regular season with a strong victory.  

As tough as things have been lately, Iowa State and Maryland still find themselves at #18 and #19 in KenPom, and both are capable of winning some games in the NCAA Tournament. But as much as matchups matter for every team, this might especially be the case for Iowa State and Maryland.