Butler Basketball: Keys to success versus Providence on the road

Butler basketball’s regular-season finale will come at Providence. What will the Dawgs need to do to secure the win prior to the Big East Tournament?

With at-large hopes hanging by a thread, Butler basketball is in “must-win” mode basically until the Big East Tournament final (if they can get there). During this past week, the Dawgs started this stretch of mandatory victories by defending their home court in a rivalry game against Xavier. Now another challenger awaits. This time, though, Butler will not be in the friendly confines of Hinkle Fieldhouse but rather on the road against the Providence Friars. But the Dawgs are not done yet.

Looking ahead to the rest of Butler’s season and their NCAA Tournament hopes, senior guard Paul Jorgensen said it best: “There is a lot of basketball left.” And this is true. While Butler might need to win their next three or four games to have a chance at reaching the Big Dance, this is not exactly out of the question. Throughout the years, this program has been counted out over and over, so why not prove the doubters wrong once again. It might seem like a long shot but if there is no hope…what is there?

So, with a road matchup against Providence to close the regular season looming, what will Butler need to do to be successful? (All statistics were found via Sports-Reference or KenPom.)

1. A steady dose of swagger.

Butler is a better team when Paul Jorgensen is playing well. It is that simple. I know that many fans might disagree with this and complain about his shot selection but it is the truth. When on his game, there are very few secondary scorers as lethal, energetic, and explosive in the country as Jorgs. To this point in the year, the Dawgs have been a significantly better team not only when Jorgensen is on the court for lots of minutes but also when he is taking lots of shots. For reference, Butler is 6-1 when Jorgensen attempts 14 or more shots while they are just 10-13 in all other games.

Kamar Baldwin is clearly the star of the Butler team but Jorgensen is arguably the second-most important player. He has only started one of Butler’s last 16 games, though, and that was against Xavier earlier this week. And while that might have just been because it was his Senior Night, it would not shock me at all if “Prince Harry of Harlem” reprised that role as a starter in Providence. Butler is trying to make a late push for an NCAA Tournament bid and Jorgensen could be a driving force in making that happen.

If Butler wants to make a run at the Big Dance, it starts in this meeting and the swagger Jorgensen brings to the court will be needed.

2. Avoid fouling at the rim.

For the season, Providence is one of the best teams in the country at reaching the free throw line. They own the 41st-highest FTAr in the entire land and that does not bode well for Butler, who ranks near the bottom nationally in allowing opponents to get to the line. The Dawgs, though, have done a better job limiting fouls as of late as they are no longer dead last in the Big East in that category. This recent trend will certainly need to continue in this matchup as Butler cannot afford to let Providence make a living at the free throw line.

Providence, in general, can really struggle to score for long stretches of time when they are not getting to the free throw line. They are far from an elite 3-point shooting team and do not finish especially well inside the arc, either. In fact, even though they are in the top-50 nationally in both offensive rebounding rate and free throw attempt rate, the Friars are still ranked just 176th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That goes to show how poor their halfcourt offense can be at times.

Butler will want to Providence into at least one of those long droughts in this matchup.

3. Move the ball quickly and intelligently.

One of Butler’s biggest issues in conference play this season has been the lack of consistent ball movement. When everyone is playing with confidence, this can be one of the more dangerous offenses in the Big East but the offense often resorts to pick-and-roll situations as the shot clock is winding down and that is just not an efficient play. Statistically, the Dawgs rank last in the Big East in assists per field goal made (46.6%) and that is an issue. In the first meeting between these two teams, Butler dished out just seven total assists and made 19 total field goals, which were the third-lowest performances in each category of the season.

Providence’s defense is legit. With length, quickness, and strength up and down the roster, it is easy to see why the Friars rank in the top-50 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. In order for Butler to win this matchup on the road, they will need to stay focused on moving the ball on each possession. Additionally, though, avoiding turnovers will also be key as Providence ranks tops in the conference in steal rate.

In order to succeed in this facet of the game, Butler’s guards will need to be at their best. This means that Aaron Thompson will need to remain in “constant attack mode” when on the court and that Kamar Baldwin needs to actively seek out the open man when he is doubled on his drives.

In the end, I think this is the kind of road game that Butler wins. The Dawgs played with their most toughness all season earlier this week in a win over Xavier and I think that they come out with that same energy this time around. The coaching staff and the players know that their odds of an at-large bid are slim but rely on needing to take this game before heading to the Big East Tournament. Oh, and momentum going into MSG should never be understated.

Final Prediction: Butler Bulldogs – 73, Providence Friars – 70.