March Madness: 16 Teams in trouble of missing NCAA Tournament

There are still several 2019 NCAA Tournament spots up for grabs. Which of these NCAA Basketball teams on the bubble are most likely to get a bid?

It’s March and there is still a lot of things left to be determined despite being less than two weeks left in the NCAA season.

By my account, 58 teams have already punched their tickets to the “Big Dance” with 32 of these teams receiving automatic bids as a result of winning their respective conference tournament  — for this article, it does not make a difference which teams earn the automatic bid.

As of right now, 25 of the 32 conferences will receive only one bid, meaning that two or more teams have already secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The American (3), Big Ten (6), Big East (2), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), Mountain West (2) and ACC (8) are the conferences are guaranteed to have multiple teams in the Tournament.

With 58 spots accounted for, it means that there are only nine bids left to be determined. In reality, that number could even be even less with Temple, Wofford and Minnesota are virtual locks. Also, if there are upsets in the conference tournament, it could take a bid away from the teams on the “bubble.”

Teams Resumes

Temple (22-8): The Owls are almost assured of an NCAA bid as long as they take care of business before the AAC Tournament begins. The Owls, currently fourth in the American (12-4), have one game let which is an extremely important home game against No. 25 UCF (22-6). A victory over the Knights would give them their second top-25 victim as the Owls already have defeated Houston.

Temple has won seven of nine. The Owls are given an 87% chance of earning an NCAA Tournament bid according to Team Rankings. But they only have one quality win (six opportunities) and bad losses to Penn and at Tulsa, although neither are horrible setbacks. The Owls are 9-6 in road/neutral games, and they have the 41st best resume in the nation per ESPN.

Wofford (26-4): The Terriers went undefeated in Southern Conference play with an 18-0 record for their 17th straight victory. Wofford will face VMI in the quarterfinals of the SoCon Tournament on Saturday. They have faced some stiff competition during conference play, but they don’t have any signature wins, and two of their victories were against non-D-I foes. The No. 22 -ranked Terriers are on pretty solid ground, although it may behoove them to win at least one conference tournament game.

Minnesota (19-12): While the Golden Gophers are on the right side of the bubble they have played themselves on the proverbial bubble by losing seven of nine although two of those losses were on the road and were very close. Minnesota has seven quality wins which include victories over Purdue, Iowa, Washington and Wisconsin. The Gophers need one win the Big Ten Tournament not to have to sweat out selection Sunday.

Belmont (26-4): The Bruins are in the OVC Tournament finals and have won 14 straight. One of their wins was against NAIA Trevecca Nazarene, and besides two mid-major victories over Lipscomb and one win over Murray State, the Bruins don’t have a signature victory. Belmont is an impressive 13-3 in road/ neutral games.

 Arizona State (20-9): The Sun Devils have five quality wins, which includes wins over Mississippi State, Utah State, Washington State, and Kansas. They are 7-6 in road/neutral games. The Sun Devils have a bad home loss to Princeton, and Washington State as well as not good road setbacks to Vanderbilt and Stanford. ASU can’t lose to Arizona in the regular season finale on Saturday and could use at least one victory in the Pac-12 tournament to make their life easier.

St. John’s (20-10): The Red Storm are given a 62% chance receiving an at-large bid but I believe that is a little low as they have six quality victories which include two wins over Marquette against Villanova. The Red Storm are also a very respectable 7-6 in neutral road games, although they have lost two straight and lost both of their matchups against DePaul and Providence. St. Joh’ns, which has the 46th best resume, will be in real trouble if they lose at Xavier to close out the regular season on Saturday.

Clemson (18-12): The Tigers are only given a 21% chance of an at large bid despite having the 41st best resume, which I don’t necessarily agree. But the Tigers are probably given significant credit for playing a tough schedule and 6-8 in neutral/road games, although they are 1-11 in opportunities to get a signature win. Earning a win over Syracuse on Saturday is essential as a loss to the Orange eliminates the Tigers from consideration.

Texas (16-14): The Longhorns are still in the conversation because they have some huge wins — 7-10 against top opponents with victories against Kansas, Purdue, UNC, Kansas State — that are impressive. The Horns also have close several close losses but their setbacks to Providence and Georgia particularly sting. Texas will likely need to win three more games to even remain in consideration for a bid. Senior and leading scorer Kerwin Roach has missed the last four games as a result of being suspended for violating team rules.

TCU (18-12): The Horned Frogs are currently in deeper trouble than the Longhorns. TCU has the 51st best resume due to their unimpressive non-conference schedule which featured home wins over Lipscomb and Bucknell. Their big wins are over Iowa State and Baylor and they are 6-7 in road/neutral games. TCU needs a win over Texas in the season finale and one or two victories in the Big 12 Tournament.

Ohio St. (18-12): The Buckeyes are an interesting case. They have six quality victories with major victories over Cincinnati and Iowa. On the other hand, Buckeyes, who have lost two in a row, have suffered setbacks to Northwestern and Illinois. Plus, nine of their losses have been by double-digits. OSU is 5-7 in road/neutral games.

Ohio State can make a major statement by upsetting Wisconsin at home on Sunday. If they do defeat the Badgers, they may only need one win in the Big Ten Tournament to get into the Big Dance. Sophomore Kaleb Wesson has been suspended since March 1 for a team violation.

Old Dominion (23-7): The C-USA regular season champions are the prohibitive favorites to capture the conference postseason tourney as well. The Monarchs will likely not make the NCAA Tournament if they don’t earn an automatic bid. Old Dominion has two quality wins over Syracuse and VCU. However, the Monarchs have suffered losses to Oregon State, St.Joes, and Northern Iowa.

Murray State (26-4): The Racers may not be as fortunate as Belmont if they do not win the OVC Tournament. Murray State has two non-D-I victories and no signature win. The Racers have won 10 straight games.

Toledo (25-6): The Rockets are in the midst of one their best seasons under ninth-year head coach Tod Kowalcyk and are the MAC West division champions with a 13-5 record. They don’t have any signature victories, and one of their wins was against NAIA Wilberforce. Toledo will likely need to reach the conference tournament finals to have any chance of garnering an NCAA bid.

Indiana (16-14): The Hoosiers started the season at 9-2 that included big wins over Louisville and Marquette. And they are on a three-game winning streak heading into Sunday’s home game against Rutgers following huge wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. IU can’t lose to Rutgers, and the Hoosiers will likely need to reach the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament to receive serious NCAA Tournament consideration. Indiana has six quality wins but is only 4-9 in road/neutral games.

Saint Mary’s (20-11): The Gaels don’t have any quality wins although they were finished second in WCC play during the regular season with three conference losses. St. Mary’s will likely have to win the conference tournament to earn an NCAA bid.

Seton Hall (17-12): The Pirates looked like they were going to be an NCAA Tournament team before losing three straight games between Feb. 20- March 2. Seton Hall then upset No. 19 Marquette on Wednesday to give them five quality wins. A home victory over Villanova on Saturday would make the Pirates a serious threat to grab an NCAA Tournament. A loss to close the regular season would mean that they would likely have to reach at least the Big East Tournament final to have a chance to nab a bid.