Pepperdine and Gonzaga will meet in the first WCC semifinal; will the Bulldogs roll to another conference title or can the Waves pull more postseason magic?
TV schedule: Monday, March 11, 9:00 pm ET. ESPN
Arena: Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
In his return to Malibu, Lorenzo Romar has Pepperdine (16-17) playing much improved basketball. The former Washington head coach returned to the school this season, having served as head coach from 1996 to 1999. In his first year, the Waves were just 6-10 in WCC play, but have already rattled off three straight wins in the WCC Tournament, including upsets of 5-seed Loyola Marymount and 8-seed San Francisco.
The Waves’ best player is sophomore guard Colbey Ross (19.4 ppg, 7.2 apg), and he’ll only develop into a star with two more years under Romar. He had 36 points in the regular season finale against Pacific and led the way with 26 against San Francisco in the WCC quarterfinal. Junior forward Kameron Edwards (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg) is a stud who has dealt with injuries, and his brother Kessler Edwards (10.0 ppg) has been a solid contributor as a freshman.
Pepperdine ranks 153rd in KenPom and has made marked improvement over last season. They rank 130th in offensive efficiency and play at a fast pace. Unfortunately, the Waves rank near the bottom of the league in defensive field goal percentage, particularly on inside shooting. A solid team at forcing turnovers, the Waves will face quite a battle on their hands.
Having already ravaged the rest of the WCC, Gonzaga (29-2) has clearly set themselves apart as the best team west of the Mississippi. They’ve won twenty straight games and have rarely struggled against their conference foes, finding themselves two wins away from another WCC Tournament title. This high-powered team may run away with this game.
The Bulldogs’ lineup is full of stars. Junior forwards Rui Hachimura (20.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and Brandon Clarke (16.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg) are both Wooden Award finalists who have dominated all season long. Senior guard Josh Perkins (11.0 ppg, 6.5 apg) is an elite distributor and lead the team in scoring in their last outing. Sophomore guard Zach Norvell Jr. (15.7 ppg) is a proficient shooter, both from long-range and short. This team can back quite a punch, even without the services of forward Killian Tillie.
Gonzaga leads the nation in offensive efficiency and ranks second in KenPom. These Bulldogs are the best team in the nation at field goal efficiency and rank in the top five on offense in avoiding turnovers. The offense is a well-oiled machine but the defense is pretty solid too, ranking sixth in defensive field goal efficiency, with particular success down low where Clarke and Hachimura are a force.
Gonzaga won by 28 when these teams played in Spokane less than three weeks ago. The Waves have got momentum on their side, but they’ve also played three times in the last four days, while Gonzaga has rested. Unless the Bulldogs really struggle initially from shooting, it’s going to be hard for the Waves to keep pace with this potent offense. They’ll need heroic efforts from Ross and both Edwards brothers with impressive defense for forty minutes.
There’s no reason to diminish anything the Waves have done this past week, but Gonzaga is in a league of their own. This might be competitive early if Pepperdine can hit a few shots, but I expect the Bulldogs to pull away at some point. The top-ranked Bulldogs will play in the WCC title game and will be heavy favorites once more.