NCAA Basketball: Buy or sell Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee, Texas Tech as national title contenders

Tennessee Volunteers

Buy or Sell: Sell
Tennessee spent a solid month of the season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country before they fizzled down the stretch, going 4-3 over the course of their last seven games.

What happened to the Vols during that stretch is why I don’t trust them to win a national championship.

They’re a team that has built their identity on physicality and toughness, and the flexed their muscle in that area in January and early February against the bottom and middle tiers of the SEC. However, when their schedule ramped up over the last seven games of the season, they lost the physical battle in many of those games (their win over Kentucky was a notable exception).

Tennessee also struggled in the two areas that are usually indicative of NCAA Tournament success – guard play and defense.

Jordan Bone, Jordan Bowden, and Lamonte Turner have all hit relative shooting slumps and have seen their overall production and effectiveness drop over the final month of the season. They were outplayed by the backcourts of Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn, so it’s no surprise that they lost three of those games.

The Vols also allowed over 80 points in each of those three losses. That’s a mark eight teams have hit against Tennessee, and Rick Barnes’ squad is only 4-4 in those games.

I think Tennessee is a likely Sweet 16 team given the talent and experience on the roster. That said, I think their guard play and defense will be the reason they lose in the second weekend, let alone allow them to play for a national championship.