NCAA Tournament: Favorable matchups for Murray State, Liberty

Murray State and Liberty punched tickets to the NCAA tournament over the weekend. Who would be favorable matchups for the Racers and Flames?

Led by Ja Morant, Murray State fought off a solid Belmont team over the weekend and secured a 77-65 victory. There are a few statistical aspects of the Racers that especially stand out:

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom, Haslametrics, and Bartorvik are up to date through the games completed on March 11.).

KenPom Ranking: #50

Defensive 3PA Rate/Defensive 3-point %: 70th/4th

Offensive 3PA Rate/Offensive 3-point %: 221st/171st

Offensive Rebounding/Defensive Rebounding: 56th/257th

Offensive 2-point %:   5th

Offensive Tempo: 66th

Near-Proximity Attempt Rate (% of shots close to basket): 1st

My two initial takeaways:

1. Murray State defends the three really well.
2. The battle in the paint may be where their NCAA Tournament game will be won or lost.

Defensively, I think Murray State isn’t particularly strong in the interior. They’re reliant on 6-foot-8 Darnell Cowart and 6-foot-9 KJ Williams in the paint defensively, suggesting the team is a bit undersized. The Racers’ 257th-best defensive rebounding ranking reflects this as well. This is a bit concerning because it suggests Murray State has had a hard time on the defensive glass against mid-major competition. Things won’t get any easier against better, more athletic teams. In particular, I’m worried Cowart, a major contributor for this squad, will have a hard time against better interior athletes.

Offensively, Murray State takes a TON of shots near the rim. When Ja Morant is taking these shots, there’s reason to believe he shouldn’t have too many problems finishing against better competition. However, I’m worried the Racers would have a hard time against a strong interior defense. As I watched the Belmont game, I was struck by how little resistance Murray State faced in the paint. A lot of this was likely clear to the absence of Belmont’s 6-11 freshman Nick Muszynski.

Big Takeaways: I think Murray State will fare better against a team that is more three-point reliant compared to an interior-focused team. It defends the three really well and has some weaknesses on the interior defensively. Additionally, since it takes so many shots close to the basket, how its opponent defends these shots will be crucial. Facing a team that doesn’t have a great interior defense would be advantageous as well. Lastly, Murray State has been up and down from three this season, and I think a team that forces them to take a lot of threes could have some success.

Overall, Murray State has a very realistic chance of winning at least one tournament game. Regardless of the matchup, they have one of the best players in college basketball.

The Liberty Flames went on the road and upset Lipscomb to clinch its trip to the NCAA Tournament. Here’s an overview of Liberty’s statistical profile.

KenPom Ranking: #63

Free Throw %: 7th

Offensive 3PA Rate/Offensive 3-point %:  91st/68th

Defensive 3PA Rate/Defensive 3-point %: 129th/89th

Offensive Rebounding/Defensive Rebounding: 261st/99th

Offensive 2-point %: 8th

Near-Proximity Attempt Rate (% of shots close to basket): 41st

Mid-range shooting percentage: 3rd

Offensive Tempo: 348th

Winning on the road against a really solid Lipscomb team was extremely impressive. I like Liberty’s depth of ball-handlers, with three major contributors (Caleb Homesley, Lovell Cabbil, and Georgie Pancheo-Ortiz) with assist rates >=15%.

In addition, Liberty doesn’t have a clear weakness for opponents to exploit. It doesn’t turn the ball over, takes cares of the defensive glass, and defends the three well. Like most mid-major teams, I’m unsure whether they have the interior size/athleticism to match high-major opponents. A lot of this will come down to the play of 6-foot-8 Scottie James, who is 23rd in the nation in defensive rebounding rate. James might not be as big or athletic as whomever he matches up against, but I think he has the skill/motor to hold his own.

The other factor that could help Liberty pull off an upset is their offensive tempo. Liberty is currently 348th in offensive tempo, indicating that they REALLY take their time on offense. Only Delaware, Loyola Marymount, Virginia, UNC Asheville, and Siena play at a slower pace. Although there are a lot of ways to pull an upset, having a lower-possession game theoretically benefits the lower seeded team. If Liberty faces a team that also plays slow, it could potentially put them in an even better position.

As much as I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Lipscomb, it’s possible I might be overvaluing them a bit. Although KenPom has them at a decent 63rd, Haslametrics ranks them at 83rd and Bartorvik has them at 80th. These aren’t bad rankings at all, especially for a mid-major. However, based on how other teams are ranked, it surprised me a little to see Liberty this low.

Big Takeaways:

A slow tempo opponent could create an extremely low possession game. If you trust Scottie James to hold his own in the interior, Liberty shouldn’t be exploited too much in the paint. The Flames don’t tend to get to the line too much, but if they face a team that tends to foul a lot, they should be able to make them pay at the line.

Both Murray State and Liberty are capable of making noise in the NCAA Tournament. But rather than just blindly picking a team to win a game, it’s important to be aware of the type of matchups in which these teams might fare best.