ACC Basketball Tournament: Semifinal preview for Virginia vs. Florida State
After a thrilling overtime victory over Virginia Tech, the Florida State Seminoles get a chance to avenge one of their biggest losses of the season against top-seeded Virginia, who are coming off a blowout win against NC State.
TV Schedule: March 15th 7:00 PM ET. ESPN
Location: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
Florida State has had an impressive year in the ACC after starting it off so poorly against Virginia in the first game of ACC play. The Seminoles were dominated on both side of the ball in what ended up being a 65-52 defeat that was much worse than the final score indicates. The Seminoles cut the lead down from 29 points in the final two minutes against Virginia walk-ons. They have come a long way and since proven deserving of the fourth spot in the conference with two tough wins over fifth seeded Virginia Tech in the past week.
Against Virginia this time around, Florida State will be looking to avenge their previous failure. They must focus on limiting the three-point opportunities for one of the best shooting teams in the country. The Seminoles should overplay the three-point line and force Virginia to drive. They are one of the tallest teams in college basketball and must use that height to their advantage.
They need to force the likes of Kyle Guy (45 3P%), Ty Jerome (42 3P%), and De’Andre Hunter (47 3P%) to face their height at the rim and make tough shots. Kyle Guy in particular went 5-6 from behind the arc in their first match up and is tough to keep up with running around screens. Florida State has to find a way to force him to drive to the basket instead or they will fall behind.
Another key for the Seminoles will be to attack Jay Huff down low with their size. Huff was not a regular in the rotation for Virginia in their first meeting but has since cracked the lineup due to his offensive upside. He is somewhat of a liability on the defensive end however and may struggle in this match up. If Tony Bennett decides to play him, Florida State needs to take advantage.
On Virginia’s side, they are coming off a win that showcased what makes this team so dominant. Defense is obviously important, but the Cavaliers have three elite offensive players in Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, and De’Andre Hunter who are great at picking up each others slack. If one is having an off game, one of the other two is almost definitely doing the opposite.
Jerome was coming off the Louisville game last week where he finished with 24 points, six assists and four rebounds. He scored eleven more than the next highest scorer on the team. Against NC State yesterday he shot 1-11 and finished with two points. It didn’t matter and was hardly noticeable as Guy hit seven threes on his way to 29 points, and the Cavaliers pulled away emphatically in the second half despite Jerome’s struggles. It will be tough for Florida State to keep all three of UVa’s stars quiet, and Jerome in particular may be in line for a bounce back game.
The main key for Virginia may simply be to stay focused. It is easy to get excited about the prospect of playing North Carolina or Duke in the championship, especially with a team that put up no fight in the regular season standing in your way. The Cavaliers have proven they are the better team, and they have proven they can survive offensive slumps from any one of their players, they simply need to go out focused and prove it again.
Next. Buy or Sell - National title cotenders. dark
As for a prediction, Virginia has not lost to any one other than Duke this season. It seems unlikely that they will buck this trend and fall to Florida State when there is more on the line now more than ever. Florida State however seems to have stabilized since their first match up and will be eager to show Virginia how far they have come. I expect the Seminoles to keep the game close, but I think we will see Virginia controlling the game and holding on to a lead in the final five minutes.
Prediction: Virginia 65 – Florida State 58