March Madness 2019: Can Virginia Basketball be different in the Big Dance?

The taste of the UMBC upset is still poignant, but will Virginia Basketball silence the critics and make a dash for the Final Four in March Madness, or disappoint yet again?

Let’s go back about twelve months ago. March 16th, 2018 to be exact: an evening I spent in my basement with some high school buddies watching Friday’s slate of round one March Madness drama. I will never forget that night, where I sat on my couch, my agape mouth, college basketball fans’ cohesive mind-losing. I was so disoriented by the action on my flat screen that I sprinted up and down the stairs to update my sports-indifferent grandmother, who was quietly reading a Jane Austen novel, on the situation. She was surprised but relatively neutral. Meanwhile, my awe was total.

Of course, I’m remembering Maryland Baltimore County’s upset of Virginia. The first upset of a sixteen-seed over a one-seed in NCAA Tournament history. Historic. UMBC owned the moment. Their twitter account was ruthless and hilarious. K.J. Maura’s brilliance sent me into basketball euphoria. And a 20-point drubbing of the nation’s top unit gave the Golden Retrievers their school’s most iconic moment. UMBC transformed from a four-letter acronym for a college that probably 2% of America had heard of…to the entity that toppled the overall number one. overall seed and printed history. They owned the moment. But Virginia’s narrative owned the ensuing year-long media circus.

Alas, we’ve reached the pearly gates of college basketball heaven: March Madness. Virginia, once again, is a two-loss surefire one-seed with the most impressive resume in the country.  Yet, college basketball loyalists scoff at the Cavaliers and their chances at championship lore. Since the debilitating defeat last March, every conversation about Virginia faces intrusion by one exhausting yet sleepless narrative: They can’t win in March. 

Even before the UMBC debacle, Tony Bennett’s postseason track record was a misery compiler. For a coach, player, or program alike, it’s the ultimate Achilles heel. Most overcome the curse, but for Bennett and Virginia, it seems terminal. Can Virginia flip the script? That is the question. Can they conquer the March Gauntlet? I don’t yet know the answer. I’m not a wizard. However, I think I have an idea of how they will or won’t this time around.

Over the past six seasons, Virginia has been the most successful program in the nation by regular season record. Tony Bennett’s system flourishes over large sample sizes–just take the Cavs’ undefeated record against non-Duke foes for evidence. Molasses tempo, frustratingly precise shotmaking, pack-line defense, Jack Salt screens, etc. You get the gist. If you’re this deep in the article, you’ve definitely watched Virginia, you know the Virginia way. 

And you’re also aware of previous tournament mishaps, as those are well-documented. Hate or love it, the results speak for themselves. The formula manufactures victory at an extraordinary rate; but profoundly underdelivers in postseason play. So far, this year is no outlier. The NCAA Tournament is looming, and so is another polarizing judgment for Virginia.

But this year can end differently. The pieces are present. For my money, Kyle Guy is the purest shooter in the country, and he’s on an absolute tear recently. Ty Jerome is a big-bodied point guard with savvy finishing moves and an almost-as-lethal jumper. Jack Salt is unironically the best screen-setter in the country. Kihei Clark is a 5’9 basketcase. But this year, there’s a catalyst. Someone who was absent from the UMBC disaster, and breeds different DNA in Charlottesville.

De’Andre Hunter, the athletic 6’7 wing and future lottery pick. That’s not traditional Virginia basketball. Instead, Hunter single-handedly changes the game. With a concrete and accurate shooting form along with creative mid-range and at-the-rim scoring capabilities, Hunter is a complete package on offense. And on defense; well, he’s their best player on that end of the floor, which should tell you all you need to know. Throw him into the pot and yes, that is a roster capable of cutting down the nets. Sometimes–and obviously so in this case–a delicious recipe needs a tweak. It’s putting pineapple on pizza–if you’re into that kind of culinary debauchery.

Hunter acts almost like a safety valve against inferior opposition. With him on the court, I see no possibility for another monumental upset. In 2018, UMBC was about as athletic as Virginia, actually, and merely caught fire from distance en route to their 20-point triumph. That was always the formula to beating Virginia: shoot and make a ton of threes. And since the offense was so strictly systematic, the individual heroics often needed in a comeback were vacant.

Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome aren’t exceptional one-on-one scorers. Rather, they make shots (contested or not) contrived through what I call The Virginia Tapestry, where all five players weave through the court gracefully with a common goal of generating the best possible shot, no matter how much time it takes, or who takes the shot. Precision and beauty are the calling cards. It’s often effortless and frequently flawless. The final product is indicative of the collective hard-work and acute talent.

Hunter does fit into this mold but isn’t constrained by it. Jerome and Guy would struggle if not part of the Tapestry, while Hunter can thrive if alone from it. He’s a pagan god, but for Virginia basketball–and it’s the best thing that could have happened. With the addition and emergence of one star, Virginia’s makeup evolved from a millionaire’s Wofford to an elite National Championship contender, with the in-person looks of a Michigan State or Villanova. With Hunter, the ceiling raises.

Is he enough, though? My over-arching answer is yes, of course, his addition this year will have an impact tremendous enough to push the Cavaliers to previously unvisited heights. However, there are underlying concerns with the Virginia system and the Tapestry model that may be irresolvable. My concerns consolidate into one question: what happens when hell breaks loose? We know this team trusts the system in the regular season and Kyle Guy doesn’t bat an eye when he’s taking contested 25-footers against Bucknell in mid-December. But what happens when the thought of elimination braces his mind, and the icy pressure baptizes his senses? Last year, he went cold. The whole unit went cold. Their eyes widened and the moment shattered the system. Virginia broke.

The problem I will always have with Bennett’s system and Virginia is the utter lack of creativity and the over-reliance on team-play and system-play. When it’s Virginia for whom the bell tolls, who answers? When Virginia is down 64-62 with 45 seconds left and the tension suffocates the court, who steps up? What’s the plan? Is it a Kyle Guy three? A Ty Jerome floater? A De’Andre Hunter one-on-one? I don’t know. Tony Bennett doesn’t know. There was no clear answer in their two close bouts with Duke, and look how those turned out. Crunch-time proves who the real gamers are. Virginia has no proven gamers, no certain go-to scorer late in close games.

For the other contenders, I can rattle off their ideal late-game scoring situation immediately. Gonzaga: Rui Hachimura on the elbow; Duke: Zion or R.J. driving to the basket; Kentucky: P.J. Washington posting up; Michigan State: Cassius Winston running pick-and-roll; Tennessee: Grant Williams facing the hoop from ten feet out. I can swiftly identify each of these team’s crunch-time leaders and reliable scoring options. That is why–even with the counter-cultural De’Andre Hunter, I still can’t trust Virginia over the other elites quite yet.

Can Virginia win the national championship under Tony Bennett? Of course. Us college basketball media once criticized Jay Wright for his postseason faults. I’d say we were wrong on that front. And someday, I’m sure we’ll be wrong on this front too. For now, though, don’t rush the tapestry artist, because that’s when he gets messy.