Kansas Basketball: How far can Jayhawks advance in 2019 NCAA Tournament?

This Kansas Basketball has struggled more this season than typical Kansas teams do. I take a look at how far they can advance in the NCAA Tournament.

The Kansas Jayhawks have struggled for much of the season. This isn’t your typical Kansas basketball team. Despite all the struggles and dysfunction, they are a four seed in the Midwest with a chance to play potential Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in Kansas City.

This team will need to play better than they have recently if they want that to matter though. People are complaining about Kansas’ potential homecourt advantage in a matchup with top-seeded North Carolina but if they don’t play well they won’t get past Northeastern, let alone Auburn or New Mexico State.

Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the country and has this team in a spot to where they can win at least a couple of games in the NCAA Tournament. They will need some big performances out of Dedric Lawson if they want to advance. On the season he is averaging 19.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.

His offense is huge for this team since they don’t have other consistent scorers. One area he has continued to improve in is his three-point shooting which has been a huge boost for this team. He will need to be able to knock down shots inside and out while surpassing his season average in points and rebounds if they want to advance deep into the tournament.

Devon Dotson is the only other player on the team averaging double figures. He is averaging 12.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game and he has been reliable this season outside of a few tough road games for him. His ability to finish at the rim with his speed makes him so tough to defend. You would think Dotson and Lawson being threats would get the rest of team open looks but the other guys have not been able to knock down shots consistently.

With LaGerald Vick gone this team doesn’t have shooters. Quentin Grimes is making 1.5 three-pointers per game at a 35% clip which is the most makes on the team. Ochai Agbaji is making 1.1 per game at a 31% clip. Dotson and Lawson both make 0.9 three-pointers at a 37% clip. Those two aren’t known as three-point shooters either which just shows how much this team has struggled in that area.

This team has a lot of areas they struggle in but in the NCAA Tournament three-point shooting is an area where teams are able to make up differences in talent and I don’t see how Kansas will be able to do that when they play teams that are better than them. They are still a good team that is capable of making a deep run.

Ceiling: Elite Eight

For whatever reason Bill Self has had success against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the NCAA Tournament. He is 3-0 against them during his time at Kansas while they were the underdog in both 2008 and 2012 though they were the favorite as a one seed in 2013 when they beat UNC when they were an eight seed that season.

North Carolina will be the heavy favorite in that potential matchup but Kansas is more than capable of pulling off the upset. It would be tough but they have the pieces to make it happen. The Elite Eight is where it would be tougher.

I would have them as the underdog against Kentucky, Houston, and even in a potential matchup with Iowa State. The Jayhawks are capable of making one upset but I don’t see them getting back to the Final Four with the way they are currently playing. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if they got there but they just don’t seem to be quite good enough.

To even get to a potential Sweet 16 matchup with the Tar Heels they will need to win two games in Salt Lake City. They start off against the 13th seed Northeastern Huskies who are a very good three-point shooting team. They have five players that average more makes per game than Grimes’ 1.5.

Those numbers are a bit concerning but I still expect Kansas to win that game and set up a clash with the 5th seeded Auburn Tigers. Auburn is another team that fills it up from deep and they live and die from three-point range. For example, in their 84-64 win over Tennessee in the SEC Championship game they went 15-40 from three-point range. If Kansas allows that to happen they won’t have a chance to win that game.

We saw Auburn get blown out by Clemson 84-53 last season in the NCAA Tournament because they struggled to hit shots and performances like that show that you shouldn’t trust them to make a deep run. I think Kansas wins that game before falling to North Carolina in the Sweet 16 matchup in Kansas City.

Prediction: Sweet 16