March Madness 2019: Ohio State, St. John’s 11 seeds most likely to upset

There are many potential upsets in March Madness that you take into account when you make your brackets, but this one is different. This is not your 12-seed over 5-seed upset that gets posted each year, this is one is almost guaranteed to happen twice this year, this is the 11-seed.

We’ve all been there. You have to make your bracket but picking chalk is just not good enough, at least two people in your pool are doing it, and everyone that has limited college basketball-related knowledge will do it as well. This bracket being in your pool is as consistent to happen as a 1-seed winning (minus Virginia).

So now you have to find upsets to make yours different from the rest. Not just in the first round, later rounds as well. You need that double-digit seed to make it to at least the first weekend, maybe even a Sweet 16 appearance, but if you choose the wrong seed to go far, congratulations, you’ve just lost. Meet the 11-seeds.

Even the legendary Dicky V takes the chalk.

You may be asking yourself, “Why’s this guy talking about the 11-seed?”. Well, here’s a cool stat:  11-seeds have a winning record over 6-seeds the past 10 years (21-19). For those of you who don’t know what this means, let’s just say that it shouldn’t happen. This defies all statistics, odds, or probabilities that exist in a world where the higher-seeded teams should win more and do win more.

For example, 1-4 seeds in the first round winning around or over 80% in the round of 64 (39-1) for 1-seeds which is 97.5%, 36-4 for 2-seeds which is 90% but it’s only happened four more times other in the 20 years prior, 34-6 for 3-seeds which is 85%, and 32-8 for 4-seeds which is exactly 80%). 10-seeds have also only won 15 of their last 40 matchups which is less than the 11-seeds. Now that we’ve got our daily math lesson out of the way, we can confirm that this doesn’t make sense logically speaking.

It should also be brought up that at least one First Four team each year since its inception wins a game, last year 11-seed Syracuse, this year we have another two 11-seeds to continue this trend. These two matchups will be either Belmont or Temple against Maryland which will be decided on Tuesday, and St. Johns or Arizona State decided on Wednesday to face Buffalo.

What can be the cause of this stat? I wish I could say, but I don’t have the answer. If I had to guess I’d say that it’s caused by a combination of the 11-seeds having a fire lit under them from being the last at-larges chosen, the 6-seeds underestimating them for that and usually seeing them as the worst power-conference teams there, or maybe it could be just the committee over-seeding those 6-seeds because usually, when nobody tends to expect an 11-seed to do well so maybe it’s just our low expectations for them that cloud our minds.

In contrast of the 11-seed, the 12-seed is usually the best mid-major conference winners so we will buy into the hype for them against an at-large team which explains the hype each year for the 12-over-5 upset which has led to disappointment two times the last four tournaments where 5-seeds won all four games. Meanwhile, the 11-seed has won at least two games in all but two of the last 10 tournaments(2013 and 2009).

So what do these 11-seeds do in their second-round matchups? Well, they continue to do well. Compared to 6-seeds, 11-seeds do better after they reach the second-round, winning 11-10 in the Round of 32 to the 7-12 record the 6-seed has. Yes, the 11-seed has a winning record on the first weekend of the tournament. That means if 11-seeds average one team per Sweet 16. From there, their Cinderella run tends to catch up on them as they went 4-7 in the Sweet 16, but they went 2-2 in the Elite 8 to get in the Final Four where no 11-seed has advanced past before.  The two 11-seeds who have made the Final Four this decade were the 2011 VCU Rams who lost to Butler and last year’s Loyola Chicago Ramblers, who lost to Michigan.

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All-in-all, when you see the stats over the past 10 tournaments, 11-seeds are the best performing seed that’s above the 7-seed, and they are also are better than 6-seeds and fare as well as the 5-seed. If at least one of those 11-seeds made it to the finals then you can justifiably put the 11-seed as the best seed not seeded 1-4 due to their second-round performances to get themselves into the Sweet 16 which outnumber the 8-seed and 9-seed combined.

Predictions for 11-6 upsets (in order from least to most confidence)

Ohio State Buckeyes over Iowa State Cyclones

The Cyclones just won the Big 12 Tournament beating three tournament teams on the way there, including a 63-59 win over 4-seed in this tournament Kansas State and a nice 78-66 win over another 4-seed Kansas. After being thought as dead on arrival en route to the tournament, they just made themselves a team to watch out for. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes did not have as much success in their tournament winning a close one against Indiana before losing in the quarterfinals to Michigan State.

Prediction: Iowa State win

St Johns Red Storm/ Arizona State Sun Devils over Buffalo Bills

I don’t see the Sun Devils beating the MAC champs, in addition, I don’t see them winning the First Four matchup.

Prediction Part 1: St Johns Red Storm advances to the real tournament.

This game will be decided on how hot Shamorie Ponds is, as the Red Storm are 15-2 in games where he either shoots close to .500 or scores over 25 points. If the Buffalo defense which ranks 29th in the AdjD on KenPom can play like their ranking then they can win, but the Red Storm did beat the number 8 defense VCU.

Prediction: St Johns over Buffalo

Belmont Bruins/Temple Owls over Maryland Terrapins

This is a total coin flip for me as I can see either team winning this matchup. Temple has some nice wins combined with some nice quality losses, while the Bruins have been a dominant mid-major program this season. Now we get on to Maryland who I believe are over ranked whose lost their last three out of four including a 17-point loss at Penn State and a Big Ten Tournament loss to Nebraska. A lot of people can see Maryland going far but this seems like a trap to fall in. Maryland was a victim of this same type of upset back in 2017 as well. This seems like an upset not to get surprised over

Prediction: Either team over Maryland

Saint Mary’s Gaels over Villanova Wildcats

This game is the very definition of the 11-6 upset. You may think that Villanova winning the Big East will mean that they’re safe, but Saint Mary’s just beat #1 seed Gonzaga, so who really has more momentum here. In addition the last time the Wildcats weren’t a 1-or-2-seed, they lost in the first round. This seems like the best bet to choose for an upset to happen in.

Prediction: Saint Mary’s over Villanova

Additional Predictions

About one team that’s an 11-seed makes the Sweet 16 each year. My money on the team that reaches that glory is on the Bruins/Owls winner, as LSU could suffer a potential upset against Yale and 11-seeds are undefeated against 14-seeds.