Round of 32
(1) UNC vs.
Utah State
Mid-majors like Utah State are regularly discarded as lower seeds, typically tenth or lower, providing the Tournament field with 11/12/13-seeds capable of pulling stunning upsets due to being overlooked by whatever rank is spat out by the committee and the data it relies on. This year, the committee or data—or both—decided that things would be different.
The pride of the Mountain West Conference, Utah State is no regular No. 8 seed, nor are they a team to be swept under the rug as a mere bump along the way for a No. 1 seed’s journey to the second weekend. Led by high-scoring guard Sam Merrill (21.2 points) and 6-foot-11 freshman Neemias Queta (8.9 rebounds, 2.4 blocks), the Aggies are winners of 10 straight and have only lost once in the past two-plus months. Ranking fourth in two-point defense and fifth in defensive rebounding percentage, this is a strong team with bruising bodies that could present a real challenge to a UNC squad that lives in the paint and on the boards.
Washington
No disrespect to the Huskies, but UNC would likely rather play the Pac-12’s runner-up than the aforementioned Aggies. Although the Huskies boast the nation’s twentieth-best defense and rank top-5 in steal and block percentage, Washington was fairly lucky to make it into the field as an at-large bid, considering they only have two wins over fellow Tournament teams and lost to Oregon in their conference tournament. Ranked 51st in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, the Huskies profile more like a 13-seed than the 9-seed that the committee rewarded them with (for some odd reason), making them the weakest No. 9 in the entire Tournament.
Tar Heel fans may be rooting for Jaylen Nowell (16.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists) and Matisse Thybulle (9.3 points, 3.4 steals, 2.2 blocks) to lead an upset over the Aggies, but the Huskies’ odds are pretty grim.