Auburn Basketball: What is the path for the Final Four for the Tigers?

Auburn basketball just rode a hot streak to an SEC Tournament championship. Can they carry this momentum to the Final Four or will they fall early?

This Auburn team has struggled with reaching expectations this entire year. They were expected to be one of the best teams in the SEC, and they seemed to be unable to win those tough games that would get them there. However, the Tigers have managed to use their strategy of playing around the arc to help them pick up momentum at the end of the regular season. They then managed to destroy Tennessee in an SEC Championship game that helped them secure a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament bracket.

March Madness veterans know that 5-seeds are notorious for being upset. That being said, this Auburn team has what it takes to make a deep run in the Tournament. In this article, I’m mapping out what their path to the Final Four would potentially look like.

Round of 64

Auburn’s bracket begins against a tough New Mexico State team. The Aggies have one of the longest win streaks in the country, and they have no intention of slowing down. In fact, their style of play mirrors Auburn’s. Both teams hope to win this game by shooting three’s. This will come down to which team has the hotter hand, and that should scare Auburn fans. As previously stated, 12-seeds have history on their side.

If Auburn wants to avoid disappointment in the first round, they’re going to have to avoid the big runs. Each team will go on runs thanks to hot streaks, but the Tigers have to limit those for New Mexico State.

Round of 32

Part of the reason that 12-seeds do so well is the potential pairing of a 5-seed and a 4-seed before the Sweet Sixteen. Theoretically, they can avoid the 12 best teams in the field. However, the 5-seed can benefit from this as well. Auburn has proven they can handle top-tier talent thanks to their recent win over Tennessee.

The worst-case scenario for Auburn is that they have to play Kansas in this round, and that’s not a bad scenario. Kansas would usually tear through a bracket like this, but they have struggled this year. They have disappointed on practically all accounts, so this could easily be another scenario where they don’t live up to potential. In fact, they might lose in the first round.

If the Jayhawks aren’t here, Auburn would instead be playing Northeastern. They are a great team, but they’re just not at the same level as the others in the tournament.

Sweet Sixteen

This is where many brackets will have Auburn eliminated. In all likelihood, UNC will be here to play Auburn. The Tar Heels are a great team, but they are not unbeatable. Auburn would just need a hot night to beat UNC, and they could get it.

Also, it’s not a lock that UNC makes it this deep into the Tournament. There is usually at least one No. 1 seed eliminated before the start of the Sweet Sixteen. North Carolina isn’t the weakest one-seed, and they don’t have the toughest path, but we’ve seen crazier things in recent memory (looking at you, Virginia).

If UNC gets shocked, Auburn would most likely see either Washington or Utah State in this game. Let’s just say that Auburn would rather see either of them than the Carolina Blue jerseys of the Tar Heels.

Elite Eight

Once you get this far down hypotheticals, it’s hard to predict who Auburn would actually face. I think it’s safe to say that they would dread having to play Kentucky for a chance to make the Final Four. UK usually struggles with early upsets, but they find a way to win once they’re deep in a playoff run. However, Auburn beat Tennessee, and Tennessee beat Kentucky. By the associative property, we can say that Auburn definitely can beat Kentucky. It would just take a near-perfect game. In deep runs like this, high-volume shooting teams tend to die down somewhere. It’s just too unlikely that Auburn finds a way to hit tough shots in so many games in a row.

The best scenario that has any chance of happening is if Ohio State makes a Cinderella run. They have the talent and situation to make it to the Sweet Sixteen, and Kentucky could easily be upset by Wofford early on. If so, the Buckeyes would perhaps be in an Elite Eight game without playing any of the top contenders in the bracket. Teams like that usually lose by large margins to the first elite team they play. If Auburn managed to make it this far, they would definitely be considered elite.