March Madness Mailbag: Top seeds in trouble, potential upsets & more

With the NCAA Tournament now here, we answer all your questions on the top seeds, upsets, and more in this week’s March Madness mailbag!

March Madness is already underway with the First Four this week, but as we prepare for the first and second rounds to get started this weekend, it’s time to answer your biggest questions regarding the bracket.

Want to know which top seed is in the most trouble? Which lower seed will make the longest Cinderella run? Which region has the potential to go completely haywire?

We answer all of those questions – and everything else you want to know – about the NCAA Tournament below.

Do you have a college basketball or NBA Draft question you want to have answered? Join the conversation on Twitter @brauf33. Thanks as always to those who contributed this week.

Absolutely, and I think they will. I give a full breakdown of why here, but it comes down to this – they’re more explosive offensively than they have been in years past, have a more versatile lineup, and have a region that sets up incredibly well for them.

Texas Tech is the only non-No. 1 seed I have in the Final Four, so let’s go with them! They have the nation’s best defense according to KenPom, one of the nation’s most improved offenses, and a projected top 10 pick in Jarrett Culver. The Red Raiders have become one of the most balanced teams in the country.

I gave a pretty big hint just now but I think it’s going to be Gonzaga in the Elite Eight. They could lose before then as Syracuse and Florida State (their two most likely opponents) both have tough defenses to face in the country. That said, I think the Zags face Texas Tech in the Elite Eight before losing in a close game.

Virginia Tech is really the only team in that region I see as being able to knock Duke off. They just beat the Blue Devils a few weeks ago and, yes, that came when the Blue Devils were without Zion Williamson. However, the Hokies also didn’t have their best player in star point guard Justin Robinson. With both back in tow, it could be another great game – especially if the Hokies are making their threes.

Can we? Absolutely. Gonzaga’s good enough to win the whole thing but I think the road through their region is just too tough.

The only one I see as being a real threat is Utah State against North Carolina. I have UNC winning the national title so I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, but the Aggies have the size to match up with the Tar Heels, a legitimate star in Sam Merrill, and play efficient basketball on both ends of the floor.

I expect this game to be close no matter what. Utah State won’t been intimidated by the Tar Heels and won’t beat themselves. If the game is close at the end, anything could happen.

This stat makes me want to change some of my picks as I have all No. 2 seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. However, I think everyone other than Michigan State could be in trouble.

Michigan struggles offensively and will face a team with tournament experience in either Nevada or Florida. Tennessee could play Cincinnati in what would essentially be a home game for the Bearcats in Columbus, and Kentucky could face a potential Cinderella in Wofford or Seton Hall – and the Pirates have already beaten UK this year.

Again, I don’t think one of these upsets will happen, but the potential is there for all three of them.

Oregon is the only double-digit seed I have making the Sweet 16. They’re one of the hottest teams in the country having won eight games in a row, and they’ve gone on that hot streak because of their defense.

They’ve held seven of those eight opponents to 61 points or fewer, which is a terrific number. Remember, they were ranked in the top 15 in the preseason. The talent is there even without Bol Bol. Now, they just starting to play up to their potential.

If it’s going to happen – and that’s a big if – it’ll be the Midwest. We already discussed the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds potentially losing in UNC and Kentucky, but the No. 3 seed Houston could very well lose to a suddenly hot Iowa State team in the second round. Plus I have No. 4 seed Kansas losing in the first round to Northeastern.

I have UNC, Kentucky, and Houston all making the Sweet 16 in the Midwest along with Auburn, but all will have to win very tough games to get there. Madness could absolutely happen in this region.

Which tournament team was the most overrated by the committee’s seeding? Most underrated? – @hbmiller (Hayden Miller)

I thought Washington was the most overrated. They had the resume of a bubble team (NET ranking of 45, 1-6 vs. Quadrant 1) but still got a No. 9 seed somehow.

The committee did a relatively good job seeding teams in my opinion, yet I think they underseeded both Utah State and Cincinnati. I think both should have been bumped up a full seed line (USU from No. 8 to No. 7, Cincy from No. 7 to No. 6).