Virginia vs Gardner Webb: Betting Preview for Round of 64 matchup

Virginia takes on Gardner Webb in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers are the clear favorite but should the betting odds go the other way?

Although Gardner Webb is Virginia’s first Tournament opponent, a lot of discussion has revolved around Virginia’s opponent from last year, UMBC. A common misconception is that Virginia failed to take UMBC seriously. In fact, Kyle Guy has been open about his team’s mentality leading up to the game and about his own issues with performance-related anxiety. One reason for Virginia’s struggle was its inability to handle the pressure that came with being a one seed.

Another reason was the match-up. UMBC played small with a guard-heavy offense that gashed Virginia’s pack-line defense via dribble penetration. UMBC’s players weren’t more talented, but they had more foot speed. Dribble penetration is a killer against the pack-line defense. UVA defenders collapsed on the attacking guard who could either get to the rim or kick it out to a number of UMBC’s efficient three-point shooters.

Gardner Webb is similar in some respects to the Golden Retrievers. The Running Bulldogs are small with their tallest starter measuring at 6’6. They are also one of the nation’s most efficient three-point shooting teams. They have probably watched the UMBC-Virginia game multiple times and will likely imitate UMBC as teams like Duke and Louisville have done with some success, by spreading Virginia out, creating isolation, and attacking defenders one-on-one. Theoretical possibilities notwithstanding, scoring is easier said than done against the nation’s most efficient defense.

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This year’s Virginia is built to handle small ball. The most important new asset has been Kihei Clark. Clark is worthless against physical and lengthy teams like Florida State and Syracuse who can back him down inside the paint and pass and shoot on top of him. Otherwise, he is a superb on-the-ball defender, who excels at keeping his man in front of him and preventing dribble penetration. He frustrates his opponents, once inducing Virginia Tech’s Justin Robinson to commit a technical foul and teammate Ty Jerome to hit him in the head with a basketball in practice.

Besides Clark, transfer Braxton Key and center Mamadi Diakite will play an important role down low against Gardner Webb’s 6’6, 230-pound center DJ Laster. Laster won’t so much power his way to the basket as apply different moves to finesse an open look at the rim. He also has an impressive handle and can drive to the basket from behind the arc. Key and Diakite are much more mobile and athletic than Jack Salt, who is only helpful against big, physical opponents.

Diakite did play against UMBC. But he didn’t usually play a lot of minutes and wasn’t well-versed in the pack-line concept. Now, he is more experienced and a better rim protector in general. He averages a block more per game than last year. The biggest defensive asset is arguably De’Andre Hunter, who missed the UMBC game due to injury. His length, athleticism, and ability to defend without fouling has enabled him to become the ACC Defensive Player of the Year.

This year’s Virginia team ranks 28 spots higher than last year’s in terms of offensive efficiency. The best offense that Gardner Webb has faced until now is Virginia Tech, which scored 87 points against it. UVA will benefit from facing a Gardner Webb team that also likes to play a pack-line style and try to keep its opponents out of the paint. It’s one thing to keep Big South players from driving to the basket. But Hunter is a future NBA lottery pick who has so often willed his way to the rim when his teammates were shooting poorly.

Ty Jerome, who really needed this week of rest, will also succeed driving to the basket. At 6’5, he likes to use his size against smaller defenders by shooting over top of them. He attacks downhill and either converts with his characteristic tear drop or dishes it to a teammate when opponents over-help. An alley-oop candidate will be the seven-foot freshman Jay Huff who provides an offensive spark off the bench and will tower over Gardner Webb defenders. The Running Bulldogs allow one of the nation’s highest rate of threes and Virginia can exploit that weakness.

The Cavaliers are the nation’s fourth-most efficient shooting team. Besides Jerome and Hunter, Kyle Guy is also lethal. He’s converting 46% of his threes on the season, while attempting a high number of them. He will run in circles until he beats his defender by a second, catches the ball, and immediately releases it.

While Virginia has definite match-up advantages, we will have to wait until the second half to see them. Virginia is a slow-starting team. The key trend is that the Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in the first half of their last six games away from home. They don’t match the effort that opponents exert early in games. In the ACC Tournament, when NC State applied a lot of ball pressure in the first half, the ‘Hoos remained calm and composed even while behind. Similarly, Gardner Webb will do all it can to keep the game close. But, like so many of Virginia’s opponents, including NC State, the Running Bulldogs will find themselves exasperated by UVA’s pack-line defense and Virginia’s improved offense will help it to run away in the second half.

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People may expect Virginia to come out on fire as it should be hungry to put last year’s loss behind it. But I have watched Virginia’s first game after the loss, against Towson, the game at Duke which former Retriever point guard KJ Maura famously attended, and the first game in the same building, which was the ACC Tournament game against NC State, and only seen Virginia stick to its patient principles. In those three emotional, UMBC-related games, Virginia lost the first half ATS.

So my recommendation is to bet on Gardner Webb 1H at +14–I like any + at double-digits. At half-time, I would bet on Virginia ATS and the team total ‘over.’

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