Billy Donlon is an under-the-radar name in college basketball, but he’s shown the ability to transform a team’s 3-point defense.
Late this past March, the University of Missouri-Kansas City (UMKC) hired Billy Donlon as it its new men’s basketball coach. As a Chicagoan myself, Donlon has been on my radar for a while due to his “Windy City” roots. He’s had an interesting coaching trajectory thus far.
(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the end of the season).
Coaching Trajectory
Donlon’s coaching career began with brief stints as an assistant coach at American and St. Peters, but in 2001, Donlon returned to his alma mater UNC Wilmington to be an assistant under Brad Brownell (current Clemson coach).
When Brownell took the head coaching position at Wright State in 2006, Donlon followed. In 2010, when Brownell took the Clemson job, Donlon took over as Head Coach. Over six seasons, the Raiders went 109-94 and 53-49 in conference. In 2015-16, Wright State went 22-13 overall, 13-5 in conference, and fell in the Horizon League conference championship game. This was the program’s best season under Donlon, but it was not enough, as there was a parting of ways after the season.
Since then, Donlon worked one season as an assistant coach at Michigan and then two as an assistant at Northwestern before taking the UMKC job. During these assistant stints, Donlon played a significant role in crafting some of the best three-point defenses in the nation. Although there are of course exceptions, evidence has indicated that the best three-point defenses limit three-point attempts. Once the threes go up, whether or not they “go in” seems to come down to luck more than one might think. Donlon has seemed to adopt this philosophy as well.
3-Point Defense
Donlon’s knack for 3-point defense hasn’t been written about too extensively. I first heard about it on Ed Feng’s Pure Bracket Wisdom podcast (I also found reference of it here and here). Feng, founder of the analytics site The Power Rank and an Ann Arbor resident, explained that Michigan’s foundation for elite three-point defense began in 2016-17, when the Wolverines allowed only 28.8% of shots from three (9th lowest defensive 3PA rate in nation). Regarding the shift in 2016-17, Feng credits Donlon, saying on episode three of the podcast that he, “was the one who caused this change.”
Donlon’s Chicago ties brought him to Northwestern for the 2017-18 season, but the foundation he had laid persisted at Michigan. When the Wolverines’ overall defense per KenPom jumped from 69th in 2016-17 all the way to 3rd in 2017-18, new assistant coach Luke Yaklich was given the lion’s share of the credit. Although Yaklich deserves plenty of praise for continuing to shape the defense, the ability to defend the three was arguably the defense’s #1 strength (6th lowest defensive 3PA rate vs. 9th in 2016-17). Donlon had seemingly played a crucial role in implementing this strength the previous season.
(As the chart reflects below, Donlon may have had a change in philosophy after his second season at Wright St in which his defense posted the 334th lowest defensive 3PA rate. The Raiders saw improvement in this area the rest of his tenure there.)
Having been named a Northwestern assistant on June 25, 2017, Donlon didn’t have much time to “revamp” the 3-point defense (he was named a Michigan assistant May 4th of prior year, which gave him additional time). The Wildcats were 210th in defensive three-point attempt rate in 2017-18, but after a full off-season, the defense took a massive leap to 10th in this category in 2018-19. Just as year two using a “new” 3PT defense coincided with Michigan’s defense improving from 69th to 3rd overall, year two at Northwestern included a defensive jump from 90th to 19th.
UMKC
Based on this track record, I’d expect Donlon to produce comparable results at UMKC. The Kangaroos (great mascot name, right?) could be a particularly good fit considering they have already produced defensive three-point attempt rates of 60th and 88th the last two seasons. Some of Donlon’s principles may already be in place. These results, however, have been lacking the “year-two jump” in terms of overall defensive results, as UMKC was only 239th in overall defense last season. Maybe Donlon will make the difference.
UMKC has never made the NCAA Tournament as a Division 1 program, and there’s a lot of work to do to rise up the ranks of the Western Athletic Conference. Nevertheless, Donlon’s track record as a defensive coach should give Kangaroos fans new-found confidence in the program’s future.