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Texas Tech Basketball: How Chris Beard keeps his teams “old” each season

By Jacob Zinkula

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 05: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders looks on during practice prior to the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 5, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 05: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders looks on during practice prior to the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 5, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /
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DALLAS, TX – MARCH 17: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders calls out instructions in the second half against the Florida Gators during the second round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament at the American Airlines Center on March 17, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX – MARCH 17: Head coach Chris Beard of the Texas Tech Red Raiders calls out instructions in the second half against the Florida Gators during the second round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament at the American Airlines Center on March 17, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Chris Beard has had a great start to his head coaching career using a particular formula for success. Will he change his approach going forward with Texas Tech Basketball?

There are may different ways to win in college basketball. In terms of roster building, players are either recruited, transfer in, or are “inherited” if a coach is new to a program. Texas Tech Basketball’s Chris Beard has managed to have success with a particular “formula” of roster building: utilizing the transfer market to “stay old” and experienced.

(All statistics used in this article were found via KenPom and are up to date through the end of the season).

Roster 1:  Arkansas Little Rock 2015-16

One of the first things I noticed about the 2015-16 Little-Rock squad was the large gap in the team’s KenPom “minutes continuity” and “experience” metrics. To summarize, “minutes continuity” is the extent to which a team’s composition of minutes played is similar to the prior season. If a team has 7 players play most of the minutes, and the following season the same 7 players play most of the minutes again, it’s likely to be very highly ranked in “minutes continuity.” “Experience” measures, well, a team’s experience. A team with largely upperclassmen on its roster will rank higher in the metric than a team with largely underclassmen.

The 2015-16 Arkansas Little Rock squad was ranked 12th in experience and 266th in minutes continuity, a “gap” of “254” between the two. The metrics are typically fairly correlated, as it makes sense that a more experienced team is likely to have players that have played a lot of minutes together in the prior season (and vice versa).

To provide some context to how rare this profile was, only 6 tournament teams over the last 12 tournaments have had a “gap” greater than or equal to “250” (average of 0.5 per tournament).

2017-18 Texas Southern

2016-17 East Tennessee State

2016-17 Texas Southern

2015-16 Arkansas Little Rock

2011-12 Southern Mississippi

2009-10 Marquette

But what does this gap indicate? A team with a lot of experience but not a lot of minutes continuity is likely to have some upperclassmen transfers. The incorporation of upperclassmen explains the high experience ranking, while the incorporation of new players to the team explains the low continuity ranking.

In 2015-16, Little-Rock’s roster consisted of only one freshmen, and Beard brought in 5 transfers to bolster the roster. Jalen Jackson, Marcus Johnson, Lis Shoshi, and Daniel Green were all junior college transfers, and Jermaine Ruttley transferred from Florida A&M. The influx of transfers explained the low continuity ranking, while the fact all the transfers were upperclassmen helped to explain the high experience ranking.

Many teams with similar experience and continuity profiles haven’t had success, but there might be some rationale to using transfers to have a very experienced team, even if it means compromising some continuity. Doesn’t “experience” win in college basketball as so many say? Maybe a great coach, like Chris Beard may very well be, can make up for the lack of continuity and seamlessly incorporate the transfers. It worked out for the 2015-16 Little-Rock team, as the 12-seed Trojans upset 5-seed Purdue in the tournament.

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