NCAA Basketball: How college (not the NBA) has led "3PT revolution"

NCAA Basketball: How college (not the NBA) has led “3PT revolution”

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 24: A detailed view of a Wilson Basketball with a NCAA March Madness logo on it during the first half between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Florida Gators during the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament East Regional at Madison Square Garden on March 24, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

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SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH – MARCH 23: Jared Harper #1 of the Auburn Tigers reacts to a play against the Kansas Jayhawks during their game in the Second Round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 23, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

3-POINT ATTEMPT RATE FINDINGS

Here’s what I found:

>=40% 3PA%

1a. During the 2001-02 NCAAB season, 8% of teams took at least 40% of their shots from three. The percentage has been >8% in every season since. In comparison, it took until this 2018-19 season for >=8% of NBA teams to take at least 40% of shots from three.

1b. Regarding the >=40% 3PA category, college basketball has led the way, but the last few seasons have seen major spikes for both levels. The NBA went from 0% to 7% to 7% to 17%, whereas NCAAB went from 13% to 19% to 24% to 29% to 40%.

1c. In the current 2018-19 NBA season, 17% of NBA teams took >=40% of shots from three, a big jump from 7% the season prior. The NBA is still well behind college basketball in this regard, however, as 40% of NCAAB teams took at least 40% of shots from three during the 2018-19 season.

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>=35% 3PA%

2a. Focusing on the >=35% 3PA category, college basketball has REALLY led the way. As recently as the 2015-16 season, 54% of NCAAB teams took at least 35% of shots from three compared to only 10% in the NBA.

2b. The last few seasons have seen major spikes in this category as well. The NBA has increased from 10% to 20% to 37% all the way to 47%. College basketball increased from 54% to 61% to 70% all the way to 77%.

>=30% 3PA%

3a. Not surprisingly, when focusing on the >=30% category, college basketball has again led the way. As recently as the 2015-16 season, only 37% of NBA teams took at least 30% of shots from three, compared to 84% in college basketball.

3b. 2017-18 was the first season that >=30% of NBA teams took at least 30% of shots from three (37%). At least 30% of NCAAB teams have met this criteria in every season since 2004-05.

3c. 2017-18 was the first season that >=60% of NBA teams took at least 30% of shots from three. >=60% of college teams have met this criteria in every season since 2001-02.

3d. The last few seasons have also seen spikes in this category. The NBA has increased from 37% to 57% to 83% to 87%. College basketball’s increase has been more gradual in this regard over recent seasons, increasing from 84% to 89% to 91% to 96%.

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