Busting Brackets
Fansided

NCAA Basketball: How college (not the NBA) has led “3PT revolution”

By Jacob Zinkula

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 24: A detailed view of a Wilson Basketball with a NCAA March Madness logo on it during the first half between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Florida Gators during the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament East Regional at Madison Square Garden on March 24, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 24: A detailed view of a Wilson Basketball with a NCAA March Madness logo on it during the first half between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Florida Gators during the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament East Regional at Madison Square Garden on March 24, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
3 of 4
Next
HOUSTON, TX – MAY 06: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors shoots the ball defended by Chris Paul #3 of the Houston Rockets in the third quarter during Game Four of the Second Round of the 2019 NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Toyota Center on May 4, 2019 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX – MAY 06: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors shoots the ball defended by Chris Paul #3 of the Houston Rockets in the third quarter during Game Four of the Second Round of the 2019 NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Toyota Center on May 4, 2019 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

ANALYZING THE FINDINGS

Although both the NBA and NCAAB have seen big spikes in 3PA rates over recent seasons, college basketball’s increase has been more gradual over time. The NBA’s transition, although somewhat gradual, seemingly hit another gear following the 2015-16 season. A plausible theory regarding what ignited this involves the 2015-16 Warriors setting the regular season wins record at 73-9.

The Warriors took 35% of their shots from three, (2nd in NBA) made 41% of them, and the Splash Brothers in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson got a ton of attention. The combination of these factors likely made teams take notice and seek to replicate the type of success the Warriors were having with the long ball. The fact that analytics favor the three-pointer was undoubtedly already known to teams, but the Warriors had finally put it in actual practice. Further driving this was the Cavaliers, who had the 3rd highest 3PA rate that season, overcoming the 3-1 deficit and winning the Finals.

I’ve seen some chatter online about whether NBA teams have gone “too far” in terms of the number of threes they are shooting. But as we’ve seen, the NBA as a whole isn’t even shooting that many threes yet, especially when compared to college basketball. When people discuss teams going “too far,” the Houston Rockets are the classic example, as they’ve attempted 52% of shots from three this season. But the Rockets are really an outlier in the current NBA, as the Mavericks had the second highest rate at 42% of shots. On the whole in 2018-19, only 5 (17%) NBA teams took >=40% of shots from three, compared to 40% in college basketball. I’m open to discussing whether taking 50% of shots from three is too many, but from an analytics perspective, >=40% seems reasonable enough that at least 50% of teams likely will (and should) be adopting this strategy in the not too distant future.

Even if you’re not a fan of the three, it’s hard to argue that almost every team shouldn’t be attempting at least 35% of shots from three. Teams are making things hard on themselves if they don’t, especially when facing heavier three-point shooting teams. 77% of NCAAB teams are shooting 35% of attempts from three, but only 47% of NBA teams. It seems reasonable that >=75% of NBA teams will (and likely should) be adopting this strategy in the not too distant future.

Lastly, 96% of NCAAB teams and 87% of NBA teams took >=30% of shots from three in 2018-19.  It seems reasonable that >=99% of teams should be meeting this criteria.

So now we have a sense of the extent NBA and college teams have been shooting threes, but HOW WELL have they shot them? What would we expect in terms of the college vs. the NBA level? The college level has been shooting more threes and for longer, so could the increased emphasis have led to teams shooting higher percentages? The fact that the college three-point line is shorter could bend in the favor of the collegiate level as well. On the other hand, NBA players are in the NBA for a reason. They are more talented and better players, and therefore might be able to shoot higher percentages than their collegiate counterparts.

Home/NCAA Basketball News