NCAA Basketball: How college (not the NBA) has led “3PT revolution”

THREE-POINT PERCENTAGE FINDINGS

>=40% 3P%

First, I focused on teams that made >=40% of shots from three. Neither the NBA nor NCAAB have had many of these teams. The NBA has only had three such teams going back to 2003-04, most recently the 2015-16 Warriors, which made 41%. The college level has had 1-5% of its teams per season hit this criteria, but since there are many more of these teams, the fact that a few have crossed the 40% threshold isn’t necessarily that surprising. Overall, I’d say college and NBA teams have eclipsed 40% at roughly similar, almost non-existent levels. Is it surprising that more teams haven’t had this level of shooting success? I’d argue no, as 40% is just a VERY high level, especially as teams continue to shoot more and more threes.

>=35% 3P%

When I looked at the >=35% three-point shooting percentage level, the superior three-point shooting prowess of the NBA became more evident. In the 22 seasons going back to 1997-98, >=50% of NCAAB teams have never made >=35% of their threes (closest was 49% in 2007-08). Since 2003-04, NBA teams have done this in a whopping 13/16 seasons.

>=30% 3P%

In all but one season going back to 2003-04, 100% of NBA teams made at least 30% of their threes, whereas college teams have done this in the range of 90-98%. But since college basketball has so many teams, some of which are less talented, this isn’t necessarily that notable.

Analyzing The Findings

The >=35% three-point percentage category is very significant. It demonstrates that even before NBA teams started shooting a lot of threes, they were making them at fairly high percentages, and clearly higher percentages than most college teams. This makes it even more puzzling that NBA teams trailed so far behind in terms of 3-point attempt rates.

NBA teams were making threes at higher rates than college teams, yet they still were hesitant to take threes at rates comparable to that of the collegiate level. Although the NBA is catching up, college basketball has been (and still is) leading the “3PT Revolution.”