Even though rookie salaries are largely set, nearly $5 million could be on the line for the No. 1 pick based upon the results of the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery.
The 2019 NBA Draft order will be finalized on Tuesday night following the lottery, the process used to determine which non-playoff teams will earn top selections. A team’s chances are determined by the inverse of their record during the regular season – the worse a team did during the year, the better their chances are in the lottery.
Tuesday will usher in some interesting changes, however. 2019 serves as the first year of the new lottery reform designed to even out the playing field a bit more among those non-playoff teams.
Previously, the team that finished with the NBA’s worst record had a 25 percent chance to win the No. 1 overall pick and was guaranteed a top-four pick. The team with the second-worst record had a 19.9 percent chance at the top pick and was guaranteed a top-five pick, and so on and so forth for the 14 “competing” teams.
Under the new lottery system starting Tuesday night – a system created in an effort to curb tanking – each of the three worst teams have equal odds, only 14 percent, of securing that No. 1 pick. The 11 other teams all have better odds (often significantly so) than they did in the old system.
We don’t know what the real impact of this will be just yet but, on its face, the new system should create much more drama and unpredictability when it comes to the teams that will be selecting at the top of the draft.
The team with the worst record won each of the last four lotteries under the old system, taking advantage of the weight given to their position. Lessening that weight could mean bad things for the New York Knicks, who had the NBA’s worst record in 2018-19.
This more-even playing field will also affect the draft’s top prospects, too. Rather than knowing their likely destination, players like projected No. 1 pick Zion Williamson have no idea what could happen on Tuesday – and whoever wins could have a significant impact on the earning potential of their rookie contract.