NBA Draft 2019: 7 prospects that could thrive as future role players

Most NBA Draft prospects won’t end up “stars.” There are seven prospects in the upcoming draft that were “star role players” in college and may be best positioned to transition to the next level.

With the NBA Draft approaching, there will be an abundance of analysis on which players will thrive at the next level. If one looks at the top of draft boards, they will find many players like Zion Williamson that played star roles on their collegiate teams, and understandably so. Teams with top picks surely hope these players will eventually turn their “star” college roles into “star” NBA roles, becoming the type of player that can lift a franchise to new heights.

(All statistics used in this article were found via sports-reference and KenPom and are up to date through season’s end).

But most players won’t become stars, as the majority of NBA players are role players of some form. In a culture where most players want to be “the guy,” there’s often talk about how college players need to be embraced being “role players.” Since most NBA players are role players, embracing this identity might provide the best chance of professional success.

There are plenty of past prospects that were “role players” in college, were undervalued in the draft process as a result, and have over-performed expectations in the NBA. Why were they able to do this? Perhaps because being a role player in college prepared them to be what they would be best suited for in the NBA: role players.

I decided to look for the “best” role players in college basketball during the 2018-19 season, in an attempt to find some potentially underrated gems that could fit right in as solid NBA role players. To do this, I used sports-reference and filtered based on six criteria.

1. Power 5 player: ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC

There are a lot of players in college basketball, and to make things easier, I decided to focus my search on the conferences with the best talent pools.

2. Minutes per game: 20 

I only wanted to include role players that still played substantial roles on their teams. If they didn’t play at least 20 minutes for their teams, it’s hard to imagine they would be good enough to have NBA success.

3. Usage percentage: <=25%

Usage percentage reflects the percentage of a team’s possessions a player “uses” while on the court. A “use” typically refers to a possession when a player either takes a shot, gets to the free throw line, or turns the ball over. Since I’m looking for role players, I capped the usage percentage at 25% to exclude the “highest use,” “star” players. For reference, the highest usage percentage by a power 5 player in 2018-19 was Markus Howard at 37.4%.

4. Player Efficiency Rating (PER) >=20

Put simply, PER provides a per-minute rating of a player’s contributions. For some reference, 96 players across all of college basketball in 2018-19 had a PER >=25. Having already filtered out player’s with usage percentages >=25%, this filter was intended to show the players that have done the most statistically with their moderate usage levels.

5. 3-Point Field Goal Percentage >=35%

There are plenty of great role players that aren’t great three-point shooters, but for my purposes, I wanted to look for the type of role player that can provide some outside shooting. I think having this quality makes the path towards role player stardom much smoother, especially in the modern NBA where threes are so valued.

6. Have Chance of Being Drafted

Some players that are exploring the NBA draft waters may opt for another year of college, but for now, I included these players. Additionally, I filtered out any players that do not have a “realistic” chance of being drafted. This is obviously subjective, but I tried to be generous to include as many players as possible.

Eight players met all the criteria I was looking for. I’ll explore how each might project as a role player at the next level.

Kyle Guy – Virginia 

Ty Jerome – Virginia

D’Andre Hunter – Virginia

Cameron Johnson – North Carolina

Aric Holman – Mississippi State

Steven Enoch – Louisville

Desmond Bane – TCU

It’s not surprising to see three Virginia players on this list, as Virginia is known for its efficient offense in which no player takes too high a percentage of the possessions. It’s possible that Virginia’s low tempo system has led to some Cavaliers prospects being underrated. Most recently, Malcolm Brogdon has performed above expectations in the NBA.