NBA Draft 2019: In-depth look at defensive wizard prospect Matisse Thybulle

It’s difficult to use defensive stats to evaluate how good a player is on that end of the floor. However, Washington’s Matisse Thybulle’s stats are so good that they’re hard to ignore for the NBA Draft.

Using statistics to evaluate a player’s defensive contribution can be very challenging. There are plenty of advanced statistics that try to produce answers, but most people agree that these have limited value, as there is so much of defense that can’t be quantified. On offense, if a player makes a shot, that should obviously be regarded as a clear “positive.” But if a player is guarding another player that makes a shot, how do we interpret this? Did the defender force a player into a tough shot? Is there something they should have done differently? Did they follow the defensive scheme/principles the coach had communicated? Bottom line, it’s easier to use statistics to evaluate offense compared to defense.

(All statistics used in this article were found via sports-reference and KenPom and are up to date through season’s end).

The only “simple” defensive stats we really have are “steal rate” and “block rate.” These stats reflect the rate at which a player is credited with a steal or block when they are on the court.  If nothing else, it seems reasonable that if player A has a higher steal and block rate than player B, they are often the better defender (as long as player A hasn’t achieved this by being overly aggressive to the detriment of the defense). There has been analysis that suggests the steal and block rates of big-men prospects can be quite predictive of their steal and block rates in the NBA, suggesting these college stats can be pretty important.

I couldn’t find a comparable analysis for forwards/guards, but I think it’s safe to say there is reason to value prospects with high steal and block percentages. As I started digging into which prospects thrived in these areas, I was already aware that 6-5 Washington forward Matisse Thybulle was going to fare well, as I was already aware of his defensive prowess. What I didn’t expect, however, was just how good he was going to fare.

In the 2018-19 season, Thybulle posted a 6.6% steal rate and 8.1% block rate. I used sports-reference to see how many players had produced this combination of statistics, with the data going back to the 2009-10 season. My only additional filter was only including players that averaged >=20 minutes per game, in order to avoid players that put up these stats in very limited sample sizes. The results? The forward was the ONLY player in the college database that had ever put up this stat combination.

GIFS credit to NCAA March Madness

For reference, there were nine players averaging >= 20 minutes per game that have posted a steal rate of >=6.0% (no filter based on block rates). Besides Thybulle, notable players include VCU’s Briante Weber, who made the list a whopping THREE TIMES, and Louisville stud Russ Smith.

Many players, most likely bigger than the 6-5 Thybulle, have posted block rates >=8%, but again, no other player has produced the combination of both. In 2018-19 per KenPom, his 6.7% steal rate ranked first and 8.4% block rate ranked 53rd. It’s also worth noting that these superb steals and block rates aren’t just a product of Thybulle being an overly aggressive defender (one that picks up some steals/blocks at the cost of plenty of fouls/defensive mistakes.  His senior season, Thybulle only averaged 3.6 fouls per 40 minutes, well below what one would expect from someone with these numbers.

NBA Potential

Although Thybulle might still be a little under the radar, it seems that NBA teams have taken notice of him. Projections seem to have him going late first round,  but based on these unprecedented defensive stats, wouldn’t one think he might go even higher?

Although he clearly has a lot to offer on defense, offense is more of a question. Thybulle’s defensive ability could profile him as a great “3-and-D” candidate in the NBA, a role player that specializes on defense and providing solid three-point shooting. The “D” seems to be there, but what about the “3”? NBA teams might be a bit concerned about the “3,” as Thybulle only shot 46-151 (30.5%) from long range in 2018-19.  But before getting too concerned, it’s important to look at how the forward shot from downtown during his freshmen-junior seasons.

Freshmen Year: 34-93 (36.6%)

Sophomore Year: 53-131 (40.5%)

Junior Year: 58-159 (36.5%)

Senior Year: 46-151 (30.5)

So it’s not as if Thybulle has never shot the ball well. His poor shooting senior season is definitely not ideal, but I think there’s plenty of reason for teams to be optimistic about his shooting down the road. He even shot 85.1% from the line his senior season, and many think a good free throw percentage can be a positive predictor of long term shot development in the NBA.

Defensively, there’s no reason he shouldn’t produce in the NBA. The only potential concern is his height at 6-5. Thybulle definitely isn’t “small,” but for an NBA forward, I think NBA teams would prefer he were an inch or two taller. But if Thybulle’s defense indeed translates and he is able to hit shots, I think he’s worth a pick closer to 20 than 30 in the upcoming draft.