Marquette Basketball: How high can Markus Howard’s usage rate climb in 2019-20?

Marquette Basketball’s ball-dominant star led all high-major players in usage rate in 2018-19. With Sam and Joey Hauser no longer on campus, will Markus Howard be the first player in the last 11 years to crack the elusive 40 percent mark?

Part of college basketball’s beauty is in its variance from team to team. That’s not a knock on the NBA, where the superior talent creates for a magnetizing spectacle, but the college game does still offer more winning styles than the singular pace-and-space approach that has percolated across the highest level of the sport.

This past season, efficient offense paired with tenacious defense proved to be the recipe for reaching the national title game formula (Virginia and Texas Tech), but the rest of the Elite Eight featured everything from one-and-done All-Stars (Duke and Kentucky), seasoned vets (Michigan State and Gonzaga), up-tempo speedsters (Auburn), and iso-centric chuckers (Purdue).

Some styles are more consistent than others, but there is one common trait weaved through every NCAA tournament – there is more than one way to skin a cat.

The Marquette Golden Eagles are going to have to use that idea as their guiding principle, because MU probably won’t be following the recommended stylistic path in 2019-20. After losing two of their most versatile threats when the Hauser brothers transferred, Marquette will be forced to focus its offense entirely around All-American Markus Howard.

It’s not as if Steve Wojciechowski built the most well-rounded offense even with the Hausers in tow. Howard posted a 37.4 percent usage rate last season, the highest such mark for a high-major player since 2009-10. With Sam and Joey Hauser taking their respective 20.2 percent and 17.6 percent usage rates elsewhere, it stands to reason there will be a few more shots headed Howard’s way. Will Howard be the first player to post a 40 percent mark since Sports Reference first began tracking usage rate a little more than a decade ago?

Marquette Basketball does have a few options who will soak up some of the Hausers’ shot-load, notably with Utah State transfer Koby McEwen. McEwen averaged 15 points and a 26.4 percent usage rate during his two years with the Aggies; he will presumably be looking to launch as Howard’s likely sidekick.

Redshirt sophomore Greg Elliott is back in the fold after missing 2018-19 with a thumb injury, and former Utah big man Jayce Johnson is now with the program as a grad transfer. Both figure to come off the bench to start the year, but they should be steady rotation pieces who will look for their shot occasionally. Marquette’s big unknowns are on the wing with sophomore Brendan Bailey and junior Jamal Cain; if one of those players pops as a clear scoring option, then Marquette may be able to feature a more diversified offense.

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But even with those burgeoning alternatives, this is still going to be Howard’s show. He knows this is his team, Wojo knows it’s his team, and his teammates know it’s his team. The ball will be in his hands on almost every play. In-bounds plays after timeouts and crunch-time situations are all going to be run for him. Offensive rebounds will be kicked out to him. Late-shot-clock bailout opportunities will be passed to him.

In some ways, that’s a good thing. Howard is clearly the best player, and basketball is one of the few sports where a team hierarchy is necessary. Jumping back to the NBA, the Houston Rockets’ offense is singularly focused around James Harden, something that is even more pronounced as Chris Paul ages and misses time with injury. The rest of the team is there to rebound, defend, and hit open threes when Harden kicks out. It goes against every fiber of basketball purism, but it works, and more impressively, Harden’s teammates seemed largely at peace with the arrangement.

Ideally, the Marquette offense will look similar to Houston’s isolation-heavy attack. Howard is not the passer that Harden is, but he has mastered the step-back three and has added an improved floater to his arsenal. Down low, Theo John, Ed Morrow, and Johnson – three of the game’s best rebounders with varying degrees of shot-blocking chops – will play the Clint Capela role. McEwen will take on the Eric Gordon act as a streaky second guard and Sacar Anim will suit up as PJ Tucker’s college doppelganger, existing to play defense, slash to the rim, and hit corner threes. The scrappy Elliott can match up as Austin Rivers, and Bailey and Cain can assume the Iman Shumpert/Gerald Green roles as high-variance wings.

That’s probably not how Wojciechowski – a former point guard – wants to play, but it might be Marquette’s best hope in 2019-20.

Of course, that strategy means everything rests on Howard’s shoulders, as Marquette won’t be able to find a quick bucket or two from the Hausers down low. Harden posted a 40.5 percent usage rate this season, the second-highest mark in NBA history (behind only Russell Westbrook in 2016-17). Howard could very well make his own history in the Big East this year.

Howard gradually assumed more and more control of the offense as the 2018-19 season progressed, until he topped a 40 percent usage rate in 5 of Marquette’s final 7 games. MU went 1-4 in those games.

Of course, no one was complaining when the Golden Eagles were winning amidst Howard’s high-usage performances. MU won Howard’s first 7 games where he topped a 40 percent usage rate, and only started losing them when Howard was struggling while seemingly playing through a multitude of injuries. When fully healthy, it would be no surprise to see Howard maintain his previously impressive efficiency. The 20-year-old managed to provide relatively consistent offensive ratings no matter his usage rate as a junior.

Howard has something of a hero complex, as most great scorers do. He knows he is one of the most gifted shooters in the game, so what is he supposed to do – not shoot?

But there is a fine line, and it remains to be seen if Howard and Wojciechowski can strike the right balance when it matters most. The returning senior has acquitted himself well with a rising workload, but at what point will Marquette’s offense cross the line from relatively efficient to dangerously destructive?

Marquette’s 2019-20 season won’t be exclusively about Howard. MU’s success still depends on building upon last year’s positive defensive strides, while also using the new roster composition to push the pace more often. But in the end, the Golden Eagles are going to need Howard to be Player-of-the-Year level great. He’s been up for the challenge before; let’s see if he can do it again.