NCAA Basketball: Davidson Wildcats biggest winner 2019 NBA Draft deadline
Players had until 11:59 p.m. ET on May 29th to withdraw from the NBA draft and maintain their college eligibility. Even before the deadline, however, the Davidson Wildcats were already be the biggest winners of the process.
After the 12-seed Davidson Wildcats lost to 5-seed Kentucky in the 2017-18 NCAA Tournament, the team surely had tournament expectations for the 2018-19 season. Despite a solid year that included a 24-10 record and a 2nd place conference finish (14-4), Bob McKillop’s squad failed to reach a second consecutive Big Dance, settling for a 4-seed in the NIT.
(Credit to KenPom and Barttorvik for all statistics)
Despite the mild disappointment, the 2018-19 team is not graduating any contributors, laying the groundwork for even higher expectations for the 2019-20 campaign. Standing in the way, however, was the the team’s two best players contemplating NBA futures: rising senior Jon Axel Gudmundsson and rising junior Kellan Grady. On May 27th, Christmas came early for Wildcats fans, as both confirmed that they will be returning to school. Although it wasn’t a huge surprise, this shouldn’t diminish its significance for college basketball fans.
1. Both Are Very Good Players
In 2018-19, Grady averaged 17.3 points per game, shooting 52.3% from two and 34.1% from three. These percentages were down from the 60.6% and 37.2% in his freshmen season, but the production was solid nevertheless. Gudmundsson averaged 16.9 points and 4.8 assists on 54.4% from two and 35.3% from three. In conjunction with Grady, their returning 30+ points of production will be a boon for the Davidson offense.
2. Minutes Continuity
KenPom’s “Minutes Continuity” is one of my favorite advanced statistics in college basketball. It measures the extent to which a team’s composition of player minutes is consistent with that of the prior season. If a team has five players play the majority of the minutes, and then has the same five players play the majority of the minutes the following season, they will rank quite high in minutes continuity.
Barttorvik.com has a similar tool that looks at the percentage of “returning minutes” each team is projected to have next season. If every player that played a single minute for a team returned the following season, that team would have a “returning minutes” of 100%. With Grady and Gudmundsson retuning, Davidson has a projected “returning minutes” of 94.8% (5th in nation), including all five of last season’s starters.
Having a high “returning minutes” percentage doesn’t guarantee team success, but for obvious reasons (experience, being used to playing with each other), there is definitely value to this.
3. Tournament Motivation
When 10-seed Minnesota beat 7-seed Louisville in the 2018-19 tournament, I was quite perplexed. The tournament is of course “unpredictable,” but I had been confident the Cardinals would come out on top. As I dove further, there was one factor I overlooked that might have altered my perception of the game. Three of Minnesota’s significant contributors, Jordan Murphy, Amir Coffey, and Dupree McBrayer, were also significant contributors on the 2016-17 Gophers team that fell in the first round to 12-seed Middle Tennessee State.
After suffering a first round loss, then missing the tournament in 2017-18, this trio surely didn’t want to waste another tournament opportunity in 2018-19. Murphy and McBrayer in particular were both seniors and wouldn’t get another chance. They didn’t waste the opportunity, beating Louisville 86-76.
The 2019-20 Davidson squad could have a similar motivation profile to the Minnesota team. In 2017-18, Grady, Gudmundsson, and rising senior KiShawn Pritchett were all significant contributors on a 12-seed Davidson team that fell in the first round to Kentucky. After missing the tournament in 2018-19, the trio will be back and surely won’t want to waste the opportunity if they find their way back to the tournament. Of course, every tournament team wants to win, but Davidson could have a little extra motivation next season.
Next. Early A-10 power rankings for 2019-20. dark
Overall, NBA Draft entrees will likely get more attention than NBA draft withdrawals like Grady and Gudmundsson. It shouldn’t be underestimated, however, how much their returns could impact the A-10 and college basketball as a whole.