NCAA Basketball: Is sport losing too much talent early to NBA Draft?

More and more NCAA Basketball players are leaving early to pursue NBA Draft and professional careers. How big of a problem is this for the sport?

11:59 ET on May 29th was the deadline for players to withdrawal their names from the NBA Draft and retain their college eligibility. Of the 175 college underclassmen that entered the draft, 87 (49.7%) chose to stay in.

Before a few years ago, entering the draft resulted in an automatic forfeiture of college eligibility. In 2016, however, the NCAA announced it would allow players to enter the draft and still withdraw/return to college. Prospects had until late May to make this decision.

In August of 2018, another rule change allowed players to declare for the draft AND sign with agents while still retaining the option to withdraw and return to school. The perception is that these recent rule changes have contributed to more prospects entering and ultimately remaining in the draft, but I wanted to look into exactly how this has progressed over the last few years.

The below chart illustrates the number of college underclassmen that have entered the draft and how many remained following the withdrawal deadline.

(Credit to NBCSports for chart data)

It’s not surprising that the number of underclassmen entering the draft has increased following the rule changes. Going through the draft process, receiving feedback, and ultimately returning to school has been an attractive option for prospects. There seems to be few downsides to this approach.

What’s less obvious, however, is why so many more players are staying in the draft. There are a few potential reasons I can think of. First, as more players enter the draft, more players are convincing themselves they are ready for the next level. Going through the combine and working out for NBA teams brings prospects close to their dreams of playing professionally. For many of them, it is likely difficult to return to college after going through this experience.

Additionally, signing with agents has likely made players better informed about the professional opportunities at their fingertips. There are more and more opportunities for prospects, and people are becoming more knowledgeable and accepting of these opportunities. Even if a player goes undrafted, the growth of the NBA’s G-League and “two-way” contracts have made this a more appealing option.

Playing overseas has always been a path, but I think it’s being perceived less negatively than it used to be. Once associated with “failing” to make it in the NBA, it now seems to be more positively associated with “going to get paid.” As the “college athletes should be paid” argument continues to gain societal acceptance and momentum, I think it is trickling down to prospects as well. Players have obviously always wanted to get paid, but I think this momentum has pushed more prospects to actually go get their money, even if it’s not in the NBA. This dynamic helps explain why more players are entering AND staying in the draft.

If this trend continues and more players enter the draft early, what does this mean for college basketball? The simple answer is that it hurts the sport to some degree. As more players leave college (and leave sooner), this will inevitably result in the sport having a worse talent pool to work with. It’s hard to argue this a good thing. At the same time, however, the college level has never been the basketball league with the best talent pool. Its popularity has been driven by a variety of other factors: school ties, conferences, March Madness, etc.

The only way the talent pool would become a “major issue” is if college players were “visually awful” at basketball (some NBA fans might already think this is the case), but the sport is a LONG way from having to worry about this. The number of “professional basketball player” job openings won’t increase forever, so the number of players leaving for college should eventually plateau.