UNC Basketball: 2019 NBA Draft profile of Tar Heel guard Coby White

Strengths: Sheer Speed, Self-Creation, Improved Processing

Speed Demon in Transition 

Of the top point guards (Ja Morant, Darius Garland) sitting atop the 2019 NBA Draft, UNC’s Coby White is perhaps the quickest end-to-end athlete of them all, regularly displaying blazing speed in the open court.

A roadrunner for Carolina’s run-and-gun system that ranked as one of the fastest in the NCAA (sixth in tempo, fifth in average possession length), White put immense pressure on opposing defenses as a fearless transition scorer and facilitator, streaking down the court immediately after missed shots and turnovers, either getting a pass from a teammate or grabbing a rebound and pushing the break himself in Westbrookian fashion.

Having a guard with such speed is understandably useful on primary break opportunities, as it gives the offense a chance to attack a backpedaling, unset defense. White did this plenty (albeit with mixed results) throughout his freshman year, looking to set up teammates with hit-aheads and kicks outs or opting to take care of business himself with a ferocious rim attack (where he would finish with legit touch/craft or earn a trip to the charity stripe, since he’s not one to shy away from barging into stationary defenders) or use his momentum to get past defenders before stopping on a dime, with his underrated leg strength propelling him backwards into a high-level step-back pull-up.

Coby White has built a reputation of finishing with craft, using step-throughs and euro-steps to evade defenders in between him and the basket (first four clips), and using the screener (or hand-off partner) to create the edge he needs to burst into the paint in half court settings, where he’s shown the touch to finish against length even with his shorter reach and below-the-rim bounce (last three clips).

Some of these finishes are tougher than they probably should be, but this will be the norm for a player with average explosion and strength as a driver. Nonetheless, the touch is nice (67.0 FG% at the rim, per hoop-math.com), as is his assortment of high-level gallop- and euro-steps, and he’s not afraid to drive into the trees (for better or worse).

Offensive Firepower 

White’s shot mechanics, albeit quick and clean, do ring alarm bells for some onlookers who decry his low shooting pocket and low release point. While most players shoot from above their eyes (around eyebrow/forehead height), White’s jumper originates closer to his chin, with his shots getting launched at a lower point with a flattened angle as to create more thrust/power (which is visible on his deep, NBA-level range). It isn’t an ideal release for most players, but the functionality of his jumper is aided greatly by the speed at which he gets shots off — and the speed at which he transitions from his dribble into his jump shot — is fast and fluid enough to mitigate these concerns substantially.

He can still suffer from heavy contests and blocks with his lower release point, especially against lengthier defenders (i.e., whenever he gets a switch and has a wing or big man on him), but he’s shown an ability (and willingness) to slightly alter his release point, bringing the ball up higher and giving himself more leeway on his jumper (particularly on mid-range attempts), boding well for his future shot versatility (and giving slightly more optimism in his versatility than Morant’s or Garland’s). His release will always have its advantages and disadvantages, but he’s cognizant of them and understands how to utilize his body and skill set to compensate.

Additionally, to compensate for the lower release point, White uses a combination of momentum and deft ball-handling to create separation off the dribble. White only ranked in the 27th percentile (0.629 PPP on 116 possessions) on off-the-dribble jumpers in the half court this season, but showed serious flashes of top-tier primary creation via a host of hesitations, hang dribbles, change-of-pace moves, and step-backs, leveraging his speed and herky-jerky handle to eat up enough space to get shots off.

Specifically, White heavily favored a leftward-bound step-back, going left in order to align his elbow with the basket as not to hinder the smoothness of his compact, one-motion release. The diverse footwork he possesses on his step-back is very, very advanced for a 19-year-old, as he can craftily create Harden-esque space with his long strides, quick stutter steps, and powerful hops, making for some pretty flashy and highlight-worthy results against defenders of any size or skill level.

White has also shown that going right on his side-steps/step-backs isn’t out of the question, although he’s noticeably less comfortable with it (based on his left-leaning tendencies), even with the flashes of legit skill — such as rotating his hips mid-shot to realign his elbow with the rim, a high-level move — on the few attempts from his freshman season.

More often than not, White’s self-creation results in left- or backward-leaning shots, and he’s proven himself to be capable of hitting these (albeit on an inconsistent basis). The next step for him as a pull-up shooter, beyond just improving his efficiency and shot selection, will be to add the forward-momentum pull-ups to his scoring arsenal, which adds another wrinkle to his offensive toolbar and adds even more pressure on a defense. If someone with his speed and stop-start dribble was a viable triple-threat to either attack the rim, step-back, or pull-up on the move, then defenders would have a hellish time trying to prevent bucket after bucket. He’s rarely taken (or made) shots of these caliber, but in the rare occasion where he has the confidence (and opportunity) to hoist one up, it looks pretty enticing.

He also showed plenty of flash when creating opportunities at the rim too, as seen in his electric play against Duke. White put on his own personal mixtape tour — against three future NBA players in Tre Jones, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish, no less — with this string of moves, throwing it back to the And One days of endless flash and style. Spin move? Check. Behind-the-back dribble in traffic? Of course. Up-and-under finish that hisses off the glass? Why not?

Consistency was unquestionably an issue for White throughout his freshman campaign, both in terms of shooting percentages and shot selection, as he was a bit feast-or-famine through his 35 games. It didn’t help that he ended the season on a 7-game shooting slump, where he shot an abysmal 38 FG% (43.6% prior), 24.4 3P% (38.3% prior), and 69.6 FT% (82.2% prior), dragging his shooting split down to an underwhelming 42.3-35.3-80.0 on the season with a so-so 55.6 true shooting percentage. These statistical markers don’t give too much room for optimism, but reviewing the film and diving deeper into other statistical models gives more room for optimism.

Coby White shot a stellar 44.6 FG% on catch-and-shoot jumpers this season, ranking in the 93rd percentile (1.339 PPP on 112 possessions) according to Synergy Sports. Furthermore, he ranked in the 85th percentile (1.2 PPP) on “guarded” catch-and-shoot jumpers and in the 90th percentile on “unguarded” catch-and-shoot jumpers (1.5 PPP). Of all of his recorded play types on Synergy, he spotted up on the perimeter 22.7 percent of the time (his second-most frequent play type), and it was by far his best category — he ranked in the 95th percentile, recording an impressive 1.252 points per possession.

The film backs these stats up, too. He confidently hops into all of his shots with good poise and balance, getting good lift on his attempts, showing an ability to shoot from a standstill and off movement. He wasn’t utilized much in Carolina’s offense as a cutter, nor someone who ran off screens or relocated, so it will be interesting to see how those traits develop in the NBA, and whether or not he has any latent skill moving off the ball. Nonetheless, he’s a great off-ball threat because of his shooting, making teams pay for giving him any space to show off his quick trigger.

When looking at his free throw percentages, catch-and-shoot prowess, and the general flashes of creative pull-up scoring, there is a foundation of legitimate off-the-dribble shooting for Coby White that one can believe in, with his NBA projection looking better than what his 35-game collegiate sample size may suggest. It takes a bit of faith to buy into his future as a versatile/dynamic scorer, but it’s not blind faith. The crumbs of valuable offense are there, but White’s mental approach to the game, as well as particular aspects of his skill set, must be ironed out through coaching and training before he can get to where many scouts and executives think he can get to as a player.

Improved Lead-Guard Play 

His shot selection still has to improve (although some shots were a result of an ultimate green light in UNC’s shot-happy offense), but he’s made significant strides in that department — and decision-making in general — within the past year alone. White went from a score-first off-guard to being an actual full-time point guard in the NCAA, a sharp learning curve that he handled quite well, especially considering the circumstances of manning the point in Roy Williams’ high-octane motion offense that required pace and constant reads.

He’s made notable improvements from his time under Bill Self with Team USA in last summer’s FIBA U18 Americas, showing quicker processing as a playmaker, and his time under Williams at UNC has served as a valuable learning experience as well, as he learned more nuances of running point in a modern offense, making smarter/quicker reads in the flow of the offense, especially as a pick-and-roll ball-handler.

With speed and craftiness as his allies, Coby White was able to slither through and around screens, creating for himself and his teammates on a semi-regular basis. He showed a knack for splitting the pick-and-roll, where he ranked in the 67th percentile (1.333 PPP) on 12 scoring possessions, blowing by defenders for a tough finish or snaking past them in a more tactful manner.

As a playmaker, he excelled primarily as a passer out of the pick-and-roll (1.407 PPP on 54 possessions), ranking in the 97th (!) percentile on that play type alone. It helped to play in a potent offensive system with a cast of talented teammates (both competent rollers, pick-and-pop options, and three-point shooters), which certainly aided his performance in the pick-and-roll, but he legitimately flashed his improved vision, which is encouraging for his further growth as a lead-guard. His 1.54 assist-to-turnover ratio isn’t exciting, but he put up his best passing stretch in the final stretch of the season against elite ACC and NCAA competition, sporting a 2.21 A:TO in the month of March (including games against Duke, Louisville, Washington, and Auburn, to name a few), finding his stride as a passer in the games that mattered most.

He’s not the passer that Ja Morant is, as he doesn’t have an arsenal of ambidextrous passes nor elite playmaking vision (his is quite average and rudimentary, on a similar, if not slightly better, plain as Darius Garland), but his improvements in that department — such as his touch and anticipation on pocket passes, post entries, outlets, etc. — make his future as an NBA point guard an intriguing one.

Underrated Guard Defense 

And, finally, a brief note on Coby White’s impact as a defender, which is surprisingly positive considering his heavy offensive workload and his physical limitations (wingspan, frame). Although he isn’t the biggest nor the longest guard, he makes up for his natural limitations with his non-stop motor and competitiveness on the defensive end, chasing his man off-the-ball and fighting through screens whenever necessary, while also having enough lateral quickness to keep up with most ball-handlers. His awareness and processing on that end, specifically on help defense, has improved, although he’s still learning how to make timely reads and rotations. What he’s shown thus far, however, has been a mixed bag, but he looks to be a serviceable (as in: fine, average, neutral) defender at the next level.

The last clip (0:39) was especially impressive, standing out as one of White’s better defensive possessions of the year. He sticks with Virginia Tech’s Justin Robinson throughout the entire possession, trailing him off-ball after he gives it up and then sticking to him while going over the staggered screens, keeping his hands raised to deter overhead passes. It was a nice mix of lock-and-trail and point-of-attack defense, with his motor really shining through.

He’s probably not going to be a difference maker on that end in the NBA (since he wasn’t one at UNC, either), but having someone who at least cares to play defense is meaningful — caring is a big part of the battle, after all. His instincts and awareness are solid, too, as he’s shown the ability to break up passes and cut off potential lanes as a help defender in UNC’s swarming defensive scheme (that relies on a significant amount of helping and over-helping). He’s not an elite event creator (2.0 STL%), but his defense is nonetheless admirable, and he does a decent job of defending without fouling (2.7 fouls per 40 minutes). White’s wingspan and current physical profile will limit him to be a guard defender in the NBA and nothing more than that, but there’s still some value in that (he doesn’t look like someone that will have to be hidden on that end, which is more than you can say about the likes of Morant and Garland).