UNC Basketball: NBA Draft profile of North Carolina wing Cameron Johnson

Strengths: Shooting, Team-Friendly Game, IQ

Let me put things in the simplest of terms: UNC’s Cameron Johnson is probably the best shooter in the 2019 NBA Draft class and it’s not particularly close. He has the lightning-quick trigger, the picturesque shooting mechanics, swift movement, compact form, soft touch, height to shoot over anyone, and absolutely flawless footwork that enables him to shoot from anywhere beyond the arc whilst moving in any direction. He’s by far the best off-movement shooter in the draft, and he routinely put his shooting prowess on display at UNC by putting up one of the more efficient seasons you can find from anyone.

As a fifth-year senior, Johnson posted career-high averages of 16.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.7 three-pointers per game while shooting 50.6 percent from the field, 45.7 percent from three, and 81.8 percent from the line to equal an elite 64.8 true shooting percentage. His offensive box plus-minus of 9.9 was one of the highest in the country, as was his on-court offensive rating of 131.2, as his impact went far beyond mere counting stats. Finally healthy after undergoing hip surgery during the offseason, the rejuvenated wing experienced improved mobility and comfort, improving significantly upon a subpar first season with UNC which saw him struggle with meniscus and hip injuries as the year wore on.

NBA teams didn’t view Johnson as much of a prospect heading into the 2018-19 men’s college basketball season, but that quickly changed as his elite shooting wowed onlookers on a routine basis. Not only did the flashy games portray his excellence as a shooter, but the stats backed him up, too.

According to Synergy Sports, Johnson ranked in the 98th percentile in individual offense (1.169 PPP), in the 97th percentile on spot-ups (1.298 PPP), in the 97th percentile off screens (1.444 PPP), and in the 97th percentile on catch-and-shoot jumpers (1.443 PPP), where he shot an electric 49.7 percent from the field. Although he’s not much of a pull-up threat, as he largely operates as an off-ball mover (cutter, spot-up, etc.), he still ranked in the 66th percentile on pull-up jumpers in the half-court (0.868 PPP), albeit on a measly 38 possessions.

He was nothing short of spectacular for the Tar Heels and NBA teams are looking to snag the 6-9 sharpshooter (40.5 3P% for his career on 639 attempts) somewhere in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft.

Like most great shooters, Johnson has great presence and sense of space when it comes to getting his feet set and tip-toeing behind the three-point line, ensuring that long-twos are removed from his shot arsenal unless they’re intentional. When flaring or curling out beyond the arc, or simply spotting up off of a simple pass, he has an innate sense of where his feet are, as he’s capable of hopping just beyond the arc (at times just barely) to launch a pure three-pointer.

No shooter in the class possesses shot preparation as quick, pure, and consistent as Johnson, who religiously hops into his three-pointers and squares his hips almost every single time, making sure to go into his shots with momentum and lift, making for optimal energy transfer and a smooth looking release.

His wingspan/reach (6-10) isn’t ideal for a 6-9 wing, as he’s relatively stubby compared to his peers, but his shorter arms serve as another advantage when it comes to his shot mechanics and his ability to fire shots over contests without discomfort. If anything, shorter arms help his shooting, as his shot is incredibly quick and efficient. No motion is wasted. Combined with quick shot prep and a quick trigger, Johnson excelled shooting regardless of whether he had a hand in his face or not. Per Synergy, Johnson actually shot better on guarded looks (1.468 PPP on 109 possessions, 98th percentile) than unguarded looks (1.397 PPP on 53 possessions, 82nd percentile), a remarkable feat that shows just how bizarre he is at shot-making.

Johnson is really instinctive moving off-ball, good at relocating and roaming around the perimeter to get open for a catch-and-shoot three and good at finding cutting lanes, even with some of his noted athletic limitations. He’s particularly great running off screens, showing a unique ability to set his feet no matter the speed nor direction of his movement. He has absolutely flawless footwork that enables him to shoot from anywhere beyond the arc whilst moving in any direction. From a standstill, hopping back behind the line, running off screens in either direction, running full speed in transition — he’ll drain threes no matter the movement or depth.

Nothing is too deep for Johnson, who shot a nuclear 46.3 percent (75/162) of NBA-length three-pointers that were tracked by The Stepien’s shot chart, a mark that went unmatched.

Although he’s not seen as a huge threat to attack defenses from a stand-still or off of closeouts, he’s shown that he’s capable of taking one or two-dribble pull-ups or taking slower wings/bigs off the dribble. He’s not the quickest, nor does he have the flashiest handle, but he can use straight-line drives and/or simple right-left crossovers to get past heavy-footed defenders, which is important nonetheless. He’s not a great athlete, but he’s a capable one, and some of the concerns over his athletic translation on offense are a little overblown — for example, he shot a hot 73.3 FG% at the rim, a really, really good mark for any player.

One of the more underrated aspects of Johnson’s shooting is the gravity that it holds: Defenders are aware of his threat to shoot it, and thus guard him tighter than other players, gravitating toward him on defense whether he has the ball or not. This is valuable to the offense, as it frees up driving lanes (as help defenders will be afraid to rotate into the lane at the risk of leaving Johnson open beyond the arc) and enables Johnson to attack closeouts and hit open teammates with a pass if he’s double-covered.

Johnson’s high IQ really stands out as a passer, where he’s above-average for his size. He’s not someone a team would task with handling the ball and actually making plays for others on a regular basis, but he’s proven adept at making smart, quick reads within the flow of an offense, whether that’s hitting bigs with nifty pocket passes or swinging the ball to open teammates along the perimeter. He puts good velocity on his passes and typically makes the right read, even if it’s a basic one; he’s not someone who will hold the ball when he should give it up, which matters for a guy who profiles to fill an off-ball role on offense. Also, being a plus-passer as a lethal sharpshooter with that much gravity really helps an offense, since he’s capable of making the most out of the attention he gets on offense — if the defense crowds him on the perimeter with the ball, he’ll be capable of making a play without sabotaging a possession.

His IQ translates on the defensive end, too, where he’s a legitimately fine defender. He slides his feet well, particularly against slower wings and bigs, and is competitive both on and off of the ball, using his IQ to (usually) stay in the right place on defense. Johnson’s hips make him a questionable bet to chase players through screens, but his offseason hip surgery and renewed focus on defensive technique (something he can still work on, for what it’s worth) has paid off in a big way, as he’s smarter about how he positions himself on defense. He’s not going to be a great lock-and-trail guy at the next level, but he’s shown an improvement in technique, dipping his shoulder to glide through screens to stick with his man. It’s not a huge thing, but any improvements are notable, especially when it comes to a slower player learning how to make the most of his athleticism on defense.

In a few of the clips from the above video, Johnson competes well and slides his feet with a pair of NBA-caliber athletes (albeit underwhelming ones with significant concerns of their own) in Cam Reddish and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, forcing a tough shot and getting a pair of strips in the process.

Is he going to be a plus-defender in the NBA? Probably not, no, not without the requisite agility and strength that’s necessary to square up against multiple positions (and variants of wings of differing sizes and athletic profiles), but his IQ should be enough to render him average/below-average on that end without being a severe negative. At best, he may be neutral, but if his shooting translates (which it seriously should), then the offensive value he brings will outweigh whatever defensive shortcomings there may be (to a reasonable extent, anyway).