UNC Basketball: NBA Draft profile of North Carolina wing Cameron Johnson

Weaknesses: Athleticism, Physical Profile

When it comes to the analysis of most prospects, a lot of emphasis is placed on psychoanalysis and skill level, diving into what players are capable of doing on a basketball court and understanding why they do it. Scouts nitpick certain skills, like a lead guard’s pull-up scoring or passing vision, or a center’s team defense and ability to make sound rotations. As such, for a lot of players, “weaknesses” are attached to traits that are skill- or IQ-based, which can be difficult to correct but are fixable.

For Cameron Johnson, his “weaknesses” aren’t on connected to skill or IQ. The previous slide does a good job of making that clear, as he excels as a perimeter shot-maker and excellent ball-mover on offense, with capable defense on the other end. Rather, it’s the physical elements of his game — his thin frame, average wingspan (6-10), stiff hips, average lateral quickness, lack of bounce, below-average strength — that are of concern, and they’re traits that probably can’t be fixed.

Really, the biggest issue that seeps into everything for Johnson is his average (if not slightly below-average) physical and athletic profile, as it affects his capabilities to attack closeouts and finish in traffic on offense, as well as his ability to keep up with quicker ball-handlers and bang with the bigger bodies on defense.

Without any notable vertical pop, burst, or strength, Johnson struggles at times when attacking closeouts on offense, as he can get bumped off course or heavily contested at the rim. Without a dynamic dribble (he’s fine attacking in straight lines), he’s not a real threat to consistently take defenders off the dribble (unless they’re heavier-footed wings/bigs), which limits what he’s capable of doing inside the arc whenever he’s ran off the line. He’s capable of a driver, yes, but big men have proven that he’s not too difficult to cut off, and that their strength is enough to greatly alter Johnson’s chances of scoring a basket. Either he pulls it out to reset the offense, or he contorts his body to put up contested runners and floaters, which rarely go in.

Additionally, his lack of strength makes it difficult for him to score around the basket without momentum. Johnson was a horrible post scorer this past season, ranking in the 2nd percentile per Synergy (.286 PPP). Although the 14-possession sample is small, it was nonetheless quite telling, as he went 2/12 from the field and turned it over twice, struggling time and time against to handle the pressure that bigger bodies put on him in the paint. He struggled on offensive putbacks as well, a staple of the Carolina system, only ranking in the 30th percentile with a meager 0.973 points per possession (36 total possessions).

His physical and athletic profile is more concerning on the defensive end, however. His offense isn’t too big of a concern, as he’s an excellent shooter, strong passer, and has enough touch to finish on the few drives he makes per game, even if his natural tools aren’t giving him much to work with. We know that he can shoot, so he’s not going to hurt a team on offense — plenty of players are used exclusively as spot-up guys, and if that’s what he ends up being, then he still has a spot in the league.

But who can he actually defend at the next level? What position? His lateral quickness is average, so he’s fine against some 2’s and most 3’s, but at 6-9 he doesn’t have the strength to regularly go against NBA-caliber 4’s, which makes him play much smaller than his listed height on defense. At 205 pounds with a thin chest, he’s not a great bet to put on more weight, and with his hip issues, it’s possible that additional weight would sap him of even more agility.

He’s a fluid mover but he’s pretty stiff and rigid, although his offseason hip surgery did aid him significantly, but he nonetheless struggles mightily against quicker, shiftier ball-handlers, at times putting on embarrassing displays of his inability to quickly flip his hips (he’s been put on a spin cycle on more than one occasion, unfortunately).

Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

(Poor Cam.)

He can be a bit jumpy when defending out on the perimeter too, attacking closeouts with too much urgency and subsequently not having the foot speed and hip mobility to get back in front of his man in time. His intelligence and awareness benefit him on the defensive end and help mask some of his physical limitations, but they’re nonetheless glaring and must be addressed.

Quite simply, Cameron Johnson is an average athlete. Very, very average, and his physical measurements as a tall wing aren’t what teams would like to see, given the preference for longer, stronger players on the perimeter. His limitations can be masked to an extent, but the concerns over whether he reaches athletic thresholds on the wing are legitimate, although I personally am not too worried about it, given what he’ll be asked to do at the next level. Defending up a position (2’s and some 3’s) and serving as an off-movement shooter who can sparsely attack closeouts are both his projected roles, and if he lands with a team that can integrate him well, his lack of above-average athleticism and length shouldn’t hurt him that much.

Teams are also likely to be a bit cautious regarding Johnson’s health, considering his extensive history with injuries both major and minor. He gets bumps and bruises in essentially every time he plays, whether it’s a knee-to-knee knock or sprained ankle, or something serious like a torn meniscus or damaged hip. The world saw how effective he could be when fully healthy (and he’s noted that he feels the best he’s ever felt, and his game showed it), and it seems like his hip issue could be behind him since it was cleaned up last summer, but his health is nonetheless something teams will be wary of.