UNC Basketball: NBA Draft profile of North Carolina wing Nassir Little

After heading into the season with immense hype, UNC’Basketball’s Nassir Little ultimately fell short. Now, it’s up for NBA personnel to figure out how high — or how low — the athletic forward should go in the 2019 NBA Draft.

Was any prospect, at least among incoming freshmen, as disappointing and as underwhelming as far as delivering on preseason expectations as five-star UNC Basketball forward Nassir Little?

The enigma of the 2019 NBA Draft, Little gained significant traction late in his senior season of high school, dominating the all-star circuit (and winning MVP honors with McDonalds and Jordan Brand) and launching up into the top-five stratosphere on most mainstream recruiting rankings. His athleticism was flashy, his power extraordinary, and his potential extremely attractive and tantalizing.

Many saw the 6-6 power wing out of Florida as the next prototypical two-way wing who would compete for the chance of getting picked first overall after going one-and-done as a Tar Heel and the next great UNC player to rock the number ‘5’ on his chest. Excellence was expected and craved by basketball fans, both Carolina darlings and NBA draftniks alike, as there was just so much to love about the young star. No one truly thought that he would fail or underperform — his tools were too significant, his talent too notable and effective. He was going to be a college star who’d dominate those ranks, too.

But he didn’t dominate. He didn’t come close to doing that, instead starting — and finishing — the season on the bench of the ACC heavyweight, not doing enough to earn a larger role or enough to convince his old-school coach that he should be gifted a starting spot over some of the team’s talented upperclassmen.

His freshman season was rocky, to be sure, as Little only averaged 9.8 points and 4.6 rebounds in (an inconsistent and tumultuous) 18.2 minutes per game, failing to crack the starting lineup through his 36 appearances in Carolina blue. He was the primary reserve, a member of UNC’s own version of the “Death Lineup” (featuring Coby White, Kenny Williams, Little, Cameron Johnson, and Luke Maye) that ended up sporting the best net rating of any lineup that took the court this year, but he was nonetheless only viewed and used as a backup forward. Not a starter, and definitely not the star he was billed as upon his enrollment in Chapel Hill.

Big games were often followed up with duds, with consistency being hard to come by. If it seemed as if the young freshman was finally getting a head of steam with a productive performance, it was all too likely that he’d put up subpar numbers the next game. And, just as likely, he’d follow up strings of poor games with strings of excellence — such as when he scored 14 total points against NC State, Pitt, and Louisville and then scored a whopping 46 against Notre Dame, Miami and Virginia Tech — before coming right back down to earth once more with underwhelming play. Consistency was rare for him.

As the season wore on, so too did the national conversation surrounding the marriage between player and coach, as Nassir Little and Roy Williams were evidently a poor match from a stylistic and schematic standpoint. While Williams wants his wings to space the floor and hit entry passes, and for his bigs to set screens and live in the post, Little fit neither of those molds as he made a name for himself as an on-ball scorer and power-driver as a high-schooler, and thus struggled to play as a ‘3’ and ‘4’ at UNC, never really finding his footing. He’s not the passer or shooter to play on the wing, nor is he the screener or post-scorer to play in the post, contributing to his mediocre play.

The media wondered aloud about the pairing, questioning every aspect of the fit. Was Williams purposefully holding the freshman back? Should high school recruits ever choose to play for Carolina when the coach values veterans over talented underclassmen? Is Williams’ “Carolina Break” outdated and ineffective? Should Little have gone to Arizona or Miami instead of the blue blood program down in Chapel Hill, een with the FBI investigation hanging over both universities (and Little)? Did Little make a mistake? Did evaluators make a mistake? What’s the deal with Nas? Is he even that good, or is Williams hindering his play that much? What gives?

So many questions for such a complicated situation, many of which were reactionary and off-base, but pertinent nonetheless. Some answers were hard (if not impossible) to come by, as only Little and Williams truly know how things went sideways after the pairing garnered so much hype and excitement heading into the 2018-19 basketball season.

That’s why Nassir LIttle is so hard to figure out as a prospect. Teams look toward his strong high school play and see a potential lottery pick, but can’t help but look to his poor production at UNC and see someone who may not even deserve to crack the first round. Which should be weighed more? Which, if anything, is more indicative of who Little is as a player and prospect?

It’s truly difficult to suss this stuff out. Little was genuinely phenomenal in his high school film, looking like a top-five pick and a Jaylen Brown-esque wing — a legitimate NBA player. Look solely at his UNC film and, well, you see that Little was genuinely terrible all-around. His production around the rim and on the glass was solid, but the on-ball creation never manifested, nor did his jumper, nor his potential as a multi-positional defensive stopper. It’s true that he wasn’t a picture-perfect fit with North Carolina, but it’s also true that Williams was legitimately trying to get the freshman onto the court more — his play on both ends of the floor just didn’t reach a point where he could contribute at a high enough level against top-tier ACC competition. He underperformed to a major extent, which is just so puzzling when everything is considered.

“Nassir Little the Tar Heel” looks nothing like “Nassir Little the five-star recruit.” Why is the big question here, and I don’t envy NBA personnel who have to figure this out between now and next week’s draft. It’s hard to get a solid read on him, especially without inside access into his psyche and the ins and outs of his situation (what went on behind closed doors), but we’ll try to suss everything out anyway.