Draft Stock: Late lottery
So, what are NBA teams supposed to make of the powerfully athletic yet painfully raw Nassir Little? How do you weigh the risks and rewards that come with selecting him in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft? What do you do? Where should he go?
According to Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman, he surmises that Little’s floor is Boston at No. 14, with his ceiling being Atlanta with the eighth pick. That’s a bit rich for a player who looks more like a late-teens, early-twenties value, but it makes sense. The Hawks (No. 8, 10, 17) are searching for additional wing talent and stand as his best developmental fit due to team personnel and their patient approach to rebuilding. Washington (No. 9) needs whatever it can get, and traded away its two young small forwards this past season. The Timberwolves (No. 11), Hornets (No. 12), and Heat (No. 13) are all looking for talent, too, and the Celtics (No. 14) are entering a renewed youth movement and may want to grab a prototypical wing. The fits make sense, but is he worth a lottery selection?
After looking at his bright spots at UNC — the soft touch, potent finishing, productive rebounding, improved mental processing, evident physical tools, and an elite personality — in contrast with his less-flattering holes — low feel, near-zero awareness as a team defender, shaky instincts, rudimentary ball skills, fluctuating weight and inconsistent balance — it becomes increasingly difficult to peg Nassir Little as a lottery-level prospect. He produced points and boards, which helped the Tar Heels, but he was otherwise bad. Is he bad at basketball? Is he?
I don’t know. Some analysts say yes, others say no. He’s a difficult prospect to read, especially without knowing just how much the fit with UNC (and what all went on behind closed doors) impacted his play.
His film at UNC certainly says that he’s bad.
But his AAU film with 1Family (FL) is a whole other story.
He looked quicker, deadlier, more of a threat to take defenders off the dribble and score in a myriad of ways with a myriad of moves. His bag included hesitation dribbles, nasty head fakes, and quick side-to-side dribbles to get the edge on his man and freeze him before finishing at the wrack.
But his handle didn’t just help him get to the bucket, it helped him create space on pull-ups, too, where his high release and big hop would get the ball above hapless defenders attempting to contest his shot. He would calmly step into three-pointers and mid-post fadeaways, something we didn’t see at UNC.
He even had high-level moves in his arsenal, such as a mean stepback that created worlds of space, even using such a move against Zion Williamson at the McDonalds game and drilling the jumper in his grill.
And we seriously saw the improved mechanics, the smooth release, the clean pocket. His jumper, both off the dribble and off the catch, was promising, and he maintained good balance and rhythm throughout most of his attempts. It looked good.
And although he wasn’t a big event creator at UNC, he was productive at lower levels, chasing down blocks but also batting passes out of the air and stripping opponents no matter the skill level. Here, he swiped perfectly at Williamson’s (again!) dribble, knocking it loose and recovering it en route to a breakaway slam. His defense was better then, too, although his effort and screen defense was still lacking in terms of consistency and technique.
He was very, very good before stepping foot onto Roy Williams Court. He earned that five-star billing and top-5 draft projection heading into his freshman season, as he really did look like a Jaylen Brown clone. But we rarely saw this fearless, uber-tantalizing side of him at North Carolina.
So what happened?
That’s the thing — I don’t know. I’m not sure if many evaluators are sure themselves, as the gap between Little’s play between college and high school is just massive. It’s impossible to say if it was fit, or confidence, or weight, or overestimation, or whatever.
Pointing to any one thing as the cause for his relatively underwhelming season is difficult. So too is evaluating him as a prospect given all that we’ve seen.
He’ll probably go in the teens. Maybe a bit higher if Atlanta or Washington fall in love with him. It’s hard not too, given how well he carries himself and how impressive he’s been in interviews and workouts. He’s been working on his shot with his trainers, and some are reporting that it’s paid off, that it looks smoother with less segmentation at its peak. He’s been working on his weight, according to some reports, and supposedly looks to be moving with better agility in his workouts, which (as has been previously mentioned) is incredibly important. He’s nailing the pre-draft process and is rising on draft boards as a result. A lot of things are going his way, which is great, because he’s the type of guy that you really want to see succeed, both for who he is as a young man and who he is as a potentially exciting player.
But there’s just so much to look at, so many positives and negatives to somehow balance between now and the 2019 NBA Draft, which is only a few days away. Teams aren’t going to be able to solidify whether or not Little’s tenure at UNC is truly indicative of his game or not, or whether he can recapture his pre-college form. It’s up to believing in the homework and extensive scouting that’s been done — and, ultimately, believing in Nassir Little the prospect, player, and person.
It’s all so complicated — I can’t stress that enough.
Nassir Little is likely going early on draft night, but I don’t envy the teams tasked with making such a decision.