NCAA Basketball: True value of graduate transfer Kerry Blackshear

Rosters are starting to become finalized, but there is one remaining NCAA Basketball transfer decision receiving a lot of attention. Is Kerry Blackshear worth all the buzz?

With most NCAA Basketball transfer decisions having been made, the decision of Virginia Tech’s Kerry Blackshear is receiving a lot of attention. But is this more a product of Blackshear simply being the “last man standing,” or is his potential contribution really that valuable?

(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics and Stadium for GIFS)

Casual college basketball fans might not know much about the 6-10 forward, but he went to another level last season when the team’s “star” in Justin Robinson missed 12 games with an injury. Blackshear averaged 14.9 points over the whole season, but elevated it to 18.1 over this stretch from February 2nd-March 14th (included four straight 20-plus point games).

Blackshear epitomizes the “modern big” on the offensive end of the floor, scoring both inside and out. He shot 54.5% on 2-pointers in 2018-19 and has improved his 3-point percentage from 23.5% to 30.6% to 33.3% over the course of his career. As teams respected his shot more and more, Blackshear successfully attacked closeouts.

The Hokies forward can stuff the stat sheet as well, averaging 7.5 rebounds and 2.4 assists (solid for a big man) last season and can be counted on from the foul line (73.6%). In terms of rebounding, he’s particularly good on the offensive glass. Per KenPom, he was 39th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate in 2018-19.

To further demonstrate Blackshear’s impressive statistical profile, how many players in 2018-19 averaged 1.) >=7.5 rebounds per game, 2.) >= 0.6 made 3’s per game, 3.) >= 2.4 assists per game, AND 4.) a field-goal percentage >- 50.8%?

Per sports-reference, the answer is only 13, with Blackshear being among them. Notable names include recent NBA draftees in Grant Williams and Dylan Windler.

Blackshear isn’t great on the defensive end, which is part of why he isn’t pursuing a professional career yet (he likely wouldn’t have been drafted). It’s unclear whether he can offer much rim protection or guard on the perimeter at the NBA level. At the college level, however, these issues won’t get exposed too often. It’s not even unreasonable to expect Blackshear to be a “positive” on defense next season.

It’s not only unclear where Blackshear would choose to transfer, but it’s not certain whether he will transfer at all.  The “tea leaves” suggest a transfer is much more likely than not, however. Reports have suggested Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M are the three most likely destinations, with Arkansas, Florida, Memphis, Michigan and a return to Virginia Tech also in the running. A decision could come any day now.

Among the “most likely” trio, the Kentucky brand has obvious appeal. Buzz Williams leaving Virginia Tech for Texas A&M could make the Aggies a logical fit as well.

Regardless of where he ends up, Blackshear is bound to make a big impact, and an All-American selection is definitely in play. If he’s on the right team, he could very well be playing deep into March next season.