AAC Basketball: What does league do in wake of UConn’s exit?

Army & VCU

Army football and VCU basketball have both been separately discussed by bloggers, fans, and I’m sure athletic department administrators for years as potential AAC targets. The upside on a move like this is huge. Both brands are both massive in their own right, VCU as a mid-major basketball powerhouse with eleven NCAA tournament appearances since 2004, and Army as one of the most prestigious and recognized universities in the country. The Black Knights football program has also improved in recent seasons and has been winning game in bunches as an independent. The value of having both Army and Navy in the AAC also can’t be understated.

There’s also the, perhaps minor, detail that VCU basketball and Army football are better than their UConn counterparts as it stands right now. This move shouldn’t be seen as a “backfill” at all. If it happens, the American would be better than it was with Connecticut as a member. It could end up being a win for everyone involved besides the Atlantic 10 and UConn football.

Or VCU by itself

UConn football was a massive drag on the American, collecting an equal share of the league revenue while regularly accruing forty or fifty-point losses. There’s nothing valuable about the UConn football brand either; the basketball team brought the conference credibility on the hardwood and plenty of viewership, even while missing the tournament four years out of the last five, finishing below .500 the last three seasons, placing as low as ninth in the conference standings and never cracking the top-two.

But the absence of UConn football is an immediate net-positive for the American. Staying pat at eleven football members while adding another huge basketball brand, and more recently successful program in VCU, might be the best thing the conference could do. And with rumors surfacing that the conference is leaning towards not adding a new football-playing member, this could be the most likely scenario

Old Dominion

Old Dominion seems like a no-brainer for a number of reasons. Facilities: check; fan support: check; huge market with no major sports competition: check; basketball history: check; willingness to invest in athletics: check; fertile recruiting territory: check.

No, ODU isn’t going to be an instant success like Wichita was or VCU would be. You’re not adding programs with Old Dominion that will challenge for the top few spots in the American standings year-one. But Old Dominion is a project I’m sure Mike Aresco and AAC administrators had already pondered before these UConn rumors surfaced. Recruiting in Conference-USA is never going to be easy, especially when competing with schools like VCU, Virginia, Georgetown, Maryland, Duke, UNC. And no, ascending to the American won’t ensure the Monarchs will be competing with any of those schools for recruits, but it will certainly be easier to land bigger names when the sell is competing with Memphis, Cincinnati, Houston, and Temple instead of Marshall, Rice, and Southern Miss.

Of course this applies to any school moving up to a conference with a better reputation, but I think Old Dominion, given their location, size, and resources, would be uniquely positioned to take advantage of the step up.

Buffalo

Buffalo is one of the new kids on the block in the conference realignment game. Their programs had started to turn heads in the last few years, but the 2019 men’s basketball team, one of their best ever seasons from a revenue program, really promoted their stock. In a lot of ways, Buffalo is pretty comparable to Old Dominion; the market isn’t as big, but it’s a top-50 media market. Its fan support is more of a question, but I don’t doubt they’d be able to improve it with major-conference membership in a sports-crazy town like Buffalo. And being New York’s flagship public is nothing to ignore. Those negotiating future media deals will consider Buffalo’s massive alumni numbers in New York City, and its institutional reputation would fit perfectly in a league with schools like Temple, Houston, and UCF.

Oh, and the teams are pretty good. Buffalo hoops has won the MAC four times in the last five seasons. The major question mark will be how the program responds to the loss of Nate Oats.

No one

I’ve seen this discussed, and it’s certainly something the American is considering, but I think it would be the worst thing the conference could do right now. Losing a major brand like UConn is going to severely damage the conference’s hoops reputation if positive steps aren’t made to address their absence. And with the performance of their football and men’s basketball program since their last national title in 2014, the American could turn their departure into a positive with the right moves. The Huskies could be easily replaced by a school (or a combination of schools) that would be an immediate improvement in both major revenue sports. Standing still with an awkward eleven doesn’t seem like a good decision the conference could make in response to Connecticut’s departure. But there have been rumors that, at least in the short term, this is something the conference might do.