Baylor Basketball: Experience, rebounding and Tristan Clark key for Bears

Following an injury to Tristan Clark, Baylor Basketball salvaged last season with a tournament victory. With an experienced roster returning, expectations are high.

Last season, Scott Drew’s squad hung in there following a season-ending injury to leading scorer Tristan Clark. Basketball actually won six of their next seven games and finished 10-8 in the Big 12.

(Credit to KenPom and sports-reference for statistics and Big 12 Conference for GIFS)

Baylor earned a 9-seed and advanced to the round of 32 with a 78-69 victory over Syracuse. Despite a strong conclusion to the season, Clark’s injury certainly limited the team’s ceiling.

Expectations should be higher in 2019-20, as most sites project the Bears as roughly a top 20 team. Baylor’s “core five” will include a rising junior in Clark, rising sophomore Jared Butler, rising junior Mark Vital, rising junior Mario Kegler and rising senior Devonte Bandoo.

On the whole, the Bears will be an experienced team (only one freshman in 3-star small forward Jordan Turner). It’s Clark, however, that will determine how far the Bears will go.

Tristan Clark

It’s difficult to overstate how good the 6-9, 240 pound Clark was last season when he was on the court. He put up some ridiculous numbers through 14 games, averaging 14.6 points per contest on an otherworldly 73.7 percent shooting.

Going back to 1992-93, no player has averaged >=14.6 points per game AND posted a 73.7 percent field goal percentage over an entire season (per sports-reference). The closest anyone has gotten was Belmont’s Evan Bradds in 2015-16, when he averaged 17.6 points and shot 71.4 percent from the field.

Clark likely wouldn’t have kept up quite this level of production, but he didn’t even get the chance due to injury. Assuming he’s fully recovered, the rising junior should be Baylor’s best player next season. Along with his scoring ability, Clark is adept at drawing attention and kicking the ball out to open shooters.

He’s a shot blocking presence on the defensive end as well.  His 9.6 block percentage would have ranked 28th in the nation if he had kept it up over the entire season (per KenPom).

Team Profile

Led by 6-5 Mark Vital, who posted the 16th best offensive rebounding rate in the nation last season, the Bears should be at minimum a top ten offensive rebounding team (2nd last season per KenPom). Vital and the rest of the squad need to bring the same intensity to the defensive glass, however, as the Bears were only 232nd in defensive rebounding last season.

Baylor attempted 3’s on 40.8 percent of its attempts last season (116th) and made 34.1 percent of them (182nd). With the departures of two shooters in Makai Mason and King McClure, the Bears will need some guys to step up.

Devonte Bandoo is a great place to start, as he was likely the team’s best shooter last season (39.5 percent). Jared Butler was solid as well at 35.1 percent, but a third shooter would certainly be helpful.

Help is likely on the way in MaCio Teague, a 6-3 guard that sat out last season after transferring from UNC Asheville. Teague made a blistering 43.3 percent of his threes (89th in nation) his sophomore season, and although it’s uncertain whether all of his offensive abilities will translate to the high major level, his shooting certainly should.

Other potential shooters include Mario Kegler, who shot 30.3 percent on a healthy 85 attempts last season. Rising sophomore Matthew Mayer might not receive much playing time, but his 30.8 percent on 65 attempts suggest he could be capable at some point.

The same goes for Auburn transfer Davion Mitchell, who shot 28.8 percent on 52 attempts his freshmen season. Perhaps he improved his shot while sitting out last year.

With Tristan Clark, an experienced roster and a solid coach in Scott Drew, the Bears could be in for an exciting season. Along with Kansas and Texas Tech, Baylor should be in the mix for the Big 12 title.