Possible Lineups
With all minutes allocated, let’s look at a few potential lineups that Roy Williams could throw out next season. With a cast of versatile guards in the backcourt and burly bigs in the front court, Williams has himself a roster that is, conservatively, at least 9-deep in terms of players who are capable of contributing on a regular basis. Although it can be difficult for some coaches, even one such as Williams, to pick and choose players that are reliable, it’s fair to say that UNC’s roster grants Williams a rare luxury. There are plenty of lineup possibilities, and a few possibilities are broken down below:
Starters
Cole Anthony, Christian Keeling, Justin Pierce, Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot
Projecting the starting lineup is perhaps the trickiest bit of projection that we can really do. We can safely assume what nine or so players will be featured in the regular rotation given their superior talent and the past usage of some of UNC’s incumbent talent (i.e., the bench-riding ways of Platek and Huffman, for example), but wondering how exactly the rankings shake out is a bit trickier.
As it stands, my confidence in the trio of Anthony, Keeling, and Brooks all starting together is fairly high. They’re all the best players at their respective positions, Brooks is the lone returning starter and is likely locked in at power forward, and both Anthony and Keeling were likely brought in to start under Roy Williams, so they’re essentially Sharpie’d into the starting lineup.
Pierce and Bacot’s status in the starting lineup is up in the air, though, and although I personally expect them to crack the starting five by opening night, the situation appears fluid. Yet, given Pierce’s track record as a starting-caliber forward in the NCAA (albeit against lesser competition in a lesser conference), and given Bacot’s pedigree as a five-star recruit and talented post option, they offer strong cases for why they should win the starting jobs during the offseason.
Essentially, the reason for constructing this starting lineup can be simplified rather easily: They’re the best players on the roster, both in terms of returning and incoming talent. Anthony was the best guard brought in (duh!), Bacot was the best big brought in, Keeling and Pierce were two highly sought after graduate transfers that chose UNC among other attractive destinations, and Brooks is the remaining starter. It makes sense.
Small Ball / Floor Spacing
Cole Anthony, Christian Keeling, Brandon Robinson, Justin Pierce, Garrison Brooks
Swap out the 6-foot-10 Bacot (or the 6-foot-9 Brooks, if that’s your preference — it makes no difference) for the 6-foot-4 Robinson and you essentially get UNC’s second-best lineup, with this quintet offering as much shooting as a Carolina lineup could possibly offer given the team’s personnel. It wouldn’t surprise me if this is one of the most-used lineups of the season considering that Pierce is the only forward capable of playing both the ‘3’ and ‘4’ (UNC is severely lacking in intermediate-sized players), and although his shot is up-and-down (career 34.5 3P%), he’s still a perimeter threat worth respecting.
Anthony is the team’s best pull-up threat and, while his mechanics are awkward, the touch (38.0 3P% and 89.2 FT% in EYBL play, for example) is undeniable. Keeling (38.0 3P% on 6.3 attempts per game last year) and Robinson (46.0 3P% on low volume last year) are both nuclear options as well.
A lineup such as this one would be pretty thin on the wing, with the duo of 6-foot-4 guards (and the 6-foot-3 Anthony at the point of attack) not offering much in terms of raw strength, and Pierce himself isn’t that big at 6-foot-7 either. This would put extra defensive pressure on Brooks, which could be concerning, but it’s possible that the offensive punch from this unit would be enough to overcome defensive concerns. Talent and coaching are often enough to overcome size concerns at the college level anyway, so I’m not too concerned over the viability of such a group.
Defense
Cole Anthony, Brandon Robinson, Leaky Black, Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley
Will this lineup realistically get any burn throughout the season? Probably not, no, considering that it’s unlikely that Black will get significant playing time next to the Carolina starters and, based on plenty of previous game play, the frontcourt duo of Brooks and Manley isn’t liable to produce efficient offense due to the lack of spacing and reliable post offense from the two upperclassmen. But, should Roy Williams opt to put his best defensive corps together, or at least desire to do so, then such a cast of players is a fine choice.
Anthony, albeit unpolished as a defender, is a feisty competitor with a solid nose for the ball (who will also gladly step in to draw charges a la the recently-graduated Kenny Williams). Robinson, although thin, has proven himself to be a solid defender, and Coach Williams would likely favor his contributions in a situation that calls for defense. Black’s length and ball-hawking sensibilities are both major pluses on that end.
And, in the frontcourt, both Brooks and Manley offer the size and athleticism to bang in the post, and, although Manley struggled mightily even when healthy last season, he was legitimately the superior player between the two peers as a freshman, posting advanced stats that dwarfed Brooks’, so it’d be wise to plant him at the ‘5’ in times of need. Bacot himself is a fine defender, and could reasonably see himself slated next to Brooks, but Manley receives the slight edge based on seniority. (Really, either big works in such a scenario that calls for defense and size — and, as noted earlier, the offensive fit between Brooks and Manley isn’t great, hence why Bacot could be called upon more often if Williams wants two bigs together.)
The 2019-2020 North Carolina Tar Heels will have plenty of options for how they can allocate minutes across a rotation enriched with raw talent and athleticism, with several players deserving meaningful minutes and roles on next year’s squad.
With a star offensive engine in Anthony, a bevy of multi-faceted offensive wings in Keeling, Robinson, Pierce, and Black, and a trio of burly bigs in Brooks, Bacot, and Manley, Roy Williams has a daggum good roster heading into the next college basketball season — nothing short of a legitimate title contender.