Coming off a 1st round tournament loss, Utah State Basketball has plenty of returning talent. Can Sam Merrill lead the team to a tournament victory next season?
Tough 21st Century
The 8-seed Utah State Aggies fell to the Washington Huskies in the 1st round of last season’s NCAA Tournament. The loss continued a difficult 21st century for the program when it comes to March success. In eight appearances, the Aggies have only managed one tournament victory, most recently in 2001.
(Credit to KenPom, Barttorvik and sports-reference for statistics and Stadium for GIFS)
2019: 8 seed – 1st Rd L
2011: 12 seed – 1st Rd L
2010: 12 seed – 1st Rd L
2009: 11 seed – 1st Rd L
2006: 12 seed – 1st Rd L
2005: 14 seed – 1st Rd L
2003: 15 seed – 1st Rd L
2001: 12 seed – Rd 32
Barttorvik illustrates Utah State’s tourney woes this through its PAKE and PASE metrics, which measure a team’s tournament performance relative to “KenPom” and “seed” expectations respectively. Among 248 teams that have made the tournament since 2002, the Aggies have ranked 244th in PAKE and 236th in PASE.
Future Looks Bright
Despite last season’s tournament loss, things are still looking up after Craig Smith’s first season as head coach (previously at South Dakota). He led Utah State to its first Mountain West regular season and tournament championships since joining the conference in 2013, along with its highest NCAA Tournament seed since the field expanded in 1979.
The Aggies return 71.3% of last season’s minutes, including five of six players that averaged the most time on the court: senior Sam Merrill, sophomore Neemias Queta, senior Diogo Broto, sophomore Brock Miller and junior Abel Porter (lost Quinn Taylor to graduation).
Early preseason polls suggest the Aggies should be roughly a top 20 team next season, and ESPN’s early Bracketology currently has them as a 6-seed.
Neemias Queta
Utah State finished as the 38th overall team last season per KenPom, ranking 39th in offense and 52nd in defense. The team had no glaring weaknesses statistically but had some issues defending the 3-point line, forcing turnovers and limiting fouls. In terms of strengths, the Aggies excelled at defensive rebounding and defense inside the arc, ranking an impressive 5th and 4th respectively in the entire nation (per defensive rebounding percentage and defensive 2-point percentage).
These strengths were primarily driven by 6-11 Neemias Queta, who ranked 49th in defensive rebounding and 20th in block percentage last season. Although the big man is skilled in both these areas, his high motor has really made a difference.
Queta went through the NBA Draft process this offseason but ultimately decided to return, a huge development for the program. Utah State fans got a scare when Queta suffered a knee injury in July while playing for Portugal in the FIBA U-20 European Championships, but he reportedly avoided any serious ACL, MCL or meniscus tears. The full details of his injury won’t be known for a few weeks, however.
Sam Merrill
The other statistical strength that stood out for the Aggies was assist rate, where the team ranked an impressive 5th in the nation. The solid ball movement was a team effort, but it was led by star guard Sam Merrill, who posted the 237th assist rate in the nation.
As Utah State’s best player, Merrill’s play will have a massive impact on the team’s success next season. He’s had a great college career overall but took things to another level in 2018-19, averaging 20.9 points per game and shooting 90.9% from the foul line (11th nationally).
Going back to 1992-1993, only seven players have posted the following statistical profile in a given season: >20.9 points per game, 3P% >=37.6, AND FT% >= 90.9%
Jaycee Carroll – Utah State (2007-08)
Rashad Phillips – Detroit Mercy (2000-01)
Luke Babbitt – Nevada (2009-10)
J.J. Reddick – Duke (2004-05)
Kahil Dukes – Niagara (2017-18)
Brian Merriweather – Texas-Rio Grande Valley (1998-99)
Sam Merrill – Utah State (2018-19)
Along with his impressive statistics, the 6-5 Merrill has been a steady presence on the floor for the Aggies. He’s missed only one game over his college career and played 88.4% of minutes last season (65th in the nation).
For Utah State fans, there is likely one goal above all others: win an NCAA Tournament game. With Craig Smith at the helm and Sam Merrill and Neemias Queta returning, this dream could very well become a reality.