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NCAA Basketball: 5 best value bets for winning 2019-20 national title

By Zach Stearman

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: The Virginia Cavaliers celebrate with the trophy after their 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: The Virginia Cavaliers celebrate with the trophy after their 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH – MARCH 23: Mark Vital #11 of the Baylor Bears reacts to a play against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during their game in the Second Round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 23, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH – MARCH 23: Mark Vital #11 of the Baylor Bears reacts to a play against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during their game in the Second Round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Vivint Smart Home Arena on March 23, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

No. 4 – Baylor Bears (+5500)

I have been bullish on the Bear’s chances to win the Big XII all off-season, and, if they are competing for a Big XII title, why not a National Championship? Baylor is my ninth-ranked team to start the season, giving them about a 2.5% to bring home the hardware at the end of the season. Though this doesn’t sound like much, the Bovada implied odds are only 1.7%, so there is value on Baylor. A $100 bet would be expected to profit about $39 on average. At +5500, if the Bears do live up to their potential, this could be an extremely valuable ticket to hold.

Baylor finished the 2018-2019 season with a poor stretch of games, putting them out of the national picture quickly, but the Bears were a very talented team all season. Tristan Clark was dominant in the low post in out of conference play before being injured in January. His return to playing at a high level is certainly a key to success for Baylor, but he also has plenty of help around him.

Jared Butler is on his way to becoming one of the top guards in the Big XII. He averaged just over 10 PPG last season, but I believe he has the talent to break out into an All-Big XII type player. He will likely be joined in the backcourt by Auburn transfer Davion Mitchell who was a Top-60 player in the class of 2017. Mitchell has looked good in his foreign tour this offseason after sitting out last season due to transfer rules. I think the Baylor guards will be one of the best combinations in the conference. Mark Vital also returns to provide some athleticism and rebounding prowess off of the wing.

As discussed in the opening, long shots typically are not the best value in future plays, but Baylor is certainly an exception. Bovada has 25 teams listed with better odds to win the title than Baylor, including teams like Texas, Michigan, and Arizona. Take advantage of these odds while you can, because they will undoubtedly be shorter come March. When your $20 ticket has the potential to win $1100 as Baylor enters the Sweet 16, you will thank me.

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