Missouri Valley Basketball: Which team is preseason favorite for 2019-20?

Is there a clear favorite to win Missouri Valley Basketball next season? In an even field, one team may stand out for 2019-20.

Kevin Harlan: “Goins had it knocked away.”

Reggie Miller: “Numbers!”

Kevin Harlan: “Two-on-one… Here he comes! And down it goes!!! Elijah Childs jackhammers it home!!”

This was the play that shook the stadium in the first round of last season’s NCAA Tournament where Bradley represented the Missouri Valley Basketball Conference (MVC) as the #15 seed facing #2 seeded Michigan St. and gave them a run for their money. The game was a nail-biter until the final two minutes of the game as the Bradley Braves lost in a heartbreaking fashion 76-65 to Michigan State.

The year prior, the Loyola Ramblers had a historic season. They took a trip to the Final Four, which was the first time they’ve done so since 1963. They finished the season with a remarkable record of 32-6, knocking off four nationally ranked teams throughout the entire season. This goes to show you there’s tons of talent in this conference and it would be unwise to write off any Missouri Valley team.

Although it was in losing fashion, Bradley’s efforts in the NCAA Tournament earned their program national recognition and helped put the Missouri Valley Conference on the map yet another year in a row. The Missouri Valley Conference is known for having first-class coaching staffs, very gritty teams that play with a ferocious tenacity, and players with high potential and excellent hooping ability that may have been overlooked by blue-chip programs.

The Missouri Valley once held teams like Wichita St. and Creighton before they blew up nationally and moved to bigger conferences. Their consistent pipeline of students entering the draft, their increasingly difficult schedule including top-notch opponents during the regular season, and breaking the RPI top 25 rankings often throughout the past 15 years has continued the growth of this conference and the teams within it should not be taken lightly.

This conference is a lot different compared to other conferences because there isn’t usually an outright favorite over the past four years ever since Wichita State left. The conference championship, known as Arch Madness has since then, be up for grabs and the team that plays the hardest at the right moment usually goes the furthest and gets a shot at the NCAA Tournament regardless of how well they played in the regular season considering the conference only gets one slot in the big dance.

Just to describe how hard of a fight it is coming out of Arch Madness, five of the nine tournament games were decided by three points or less! So the games are basically a coin toss.

Last year, Bradley defeated Loyola 53-51 semi-finals and then University of Northern Iowa (UNI) in the finals 57-54 to win Arch Madness for the first time since 1988. This year Bradley has a lot of their roster returning including Junior Elijah Childs, who was the standout player last year in the NCAA Championship game against Michigan St. scoring 19 points. He averaged 12.4 points and 7.8 rebounds during the regular season alongside Darrell Brown who averaged 14.8 points per game. Even though Bradley was able to keep most of their core intact compared to other teams such as Illinois State who lost three key seniors in Phil Fayne, Milik Yarbrough, and Keyshawn Evans, I see the conference going in a different direction.

Let’s dive into the favorite out of the Missouri Valley Conference

In the 2019-20 season, I see a lot coming into fruition for University of Northern Iowa (UNI) team. The UNI Panthers were led by four-star top 100 recruit, AJ Green. Last year the 6-4 guard averaged a stunning 15.1 points per game as a freshman point guard and took them all the way to the Arch Madness championship game where they lost by three points in dramatic fashion to Bradley. I only expect A.J. Green to improve and reach new heights during his sophomore season as the continued leader. Freshman guard A.J. Green earned a spot on the All-MVC Third Team, All-Newcomer Team, and All-Freshman teams so I expect a lot out of him his second year.

Don’t get me wrong, Bradley will still be a very competitive ball club, but historically they aren’t known for having the strongest basketball program in the MVC. Bradley’s 2018-19 Arch Madness Championship is their first postseason championship since 1988 and their NCAA tournament birth is their first since 2006. They were able to get some key players over the summer including Danya Kingsby, the transfer from LSU and Terry Nolan who transferred from George Washington but they will have to prove that they are here to stay.

Moreover, I wouldn’t snooze on teams like Drake University who had the best overall record out of all MVC teams last year, ending their season 24-10 and Loyola who is Nationally ranked at 84 and has the best incoming freshman class coming in for 2019-20, getting a few three-star recruits in Marquise Kennedy, Tom Welch, and Paxson Wojcik. Indiana State, Missouri State, and SIU are not too far off in the conference either.

In retrospect, University of Northern Iowa stands out as the favorite in the MVC due to their program history. UNI over the past 15 years has had 12 seasons with 20 or more wins and two seasons with 30 or more wins. UNI has had four NCAA Tournament appearances and four NCAA Tournament victories over the last 13 seasons led by coach Ben Jacobson. Jacobson is the only coach in the history of the Missouri Valley Conference to have recorded two wins over two different  #1 ranked teams (Kansas, North Carolina).

Last year, UNI finished .500 (9-9) in the MVC and were a game away from making the March Madness Tournament but I think this season will be different. Back in the 2013-2014 season UNI finished with an overall record of 16-15 and bounced back the following season going 31-4 overall. Not saying that they will have a similar style comeback, but they have a system that knows how to turn it around from the season prior and a point guard and head coach to take them in the right direction.