Busting Brackets
Fansided

Virginia Basketball: Keys for Cavaliers to become a contender in 2019-20

By Jacob Zinkula

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: Head coach Tony Bennett of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrates with his team after the 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: Head coach Tony Bennett of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrates with his team after the 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
1 of 5
Next
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MARCH 30: Mamadi Diakite #25 of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrates with teammates after making a game-tying shot over Matt Haarms #32 of the Purdue Boilermakers to extend the game to overtime as time expires in the second half of the 2019 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament South Regional at KFC YUM! Center on March 30, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MARCH 30: Mamadi Diakite #25 of the Virginia Cavaliers celebrates with teammates after making a game-tying shot over Matt Haarms #32 of the Purdue Boilermakers to extend the game to overtime as time expires in the second half of the 2019 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament South Regional at KFC YUM! Center on March 30, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Virginia Basketball lost a lot from last season’s national championship team. Can Tony Bennett turn this group into another contender?

2018-19 was a magical season for Virginia Basketball. A year after the 1st-round loss to 16-seed UMBC, the team culminated a dramatic tournament run with a national championship victory over Texas Tech. But as the championship glow begins to dim, Cavaliers fans will turn their focus to the upcoming season. Does Tony Bennett’s squad have any shot at repeating?

(Credit to sports-reference and KenPom for statistics and Stadium and ACC Digital Network for GIFS)

Virginia loses four key contributors from last season: Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter and Jack Salt. Salt graduated and is set to play overseas in Poland, and the other three left early to pursue professional careers (all currently under contract with NBA teams).

The quartet accounted for 66.4% of the team’s points last season, and no 5-star freshmen or high-profile transfers are walking in the door (Sam Hauser will be eligible next season). On first glance, it’s difficult to imagine the team replacing enough production to be a contender.

Expectations

Based on early preseason rankings, however, contending seems to be very much in play. Each has Virginia in the top 15, and although an analytics site like Barttorvik might be less optimistic (31st), these rankings still speak volumes about the trust in Tony Bennett’s program.

virginia1
virginia1 /

Why the trust? Despite the departures, Virginia still has a roster and infrastructure that should produce another season of defensive excellence. Virginia has had a top 10 defense per KenPom in each of the last six seasons (5th in 2018-19), and there’s no reason to expect too much slippage in this regard.

There are four returning players that averaged at least five minutes per game last season: Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key, Kihei Clark and Jay Huff. This group will comprise a solid defensive core, and notable incoming freshman Casey Morsell is expected to fare well on this end of the floor as well.

When trying to build a contender, a roughly top five defense would be a pretty good place to start. Considering both the roster and Tony Bennett’s coaching, a defense on this level seems like a reasonable expectation.

Defense is just one end of the floor, however. Although Virginia was 2nd offensively last season per KenPom, a significant drop-off is likely due to the departure of so much offensive firepower. Compared to the defensive end, offense is more dependent on the talent of individual players and can’t be easily covered up by strong coaching and infrastructure.

Barttorvik projects the Cavaliers to have the nation’s best defense but only the 94th ranked offense. To be a contender, Virginia has to find a way to replace the combined 47.9 points per game of Guy, Jerome, Hunter and to a lesser extent Salt.

This group was also responsible for 76.3% of the made 3-pointers for a team that had the 8th best 3-point percentage in the nation. Replacing not only scoring, but long-range shooting in particular, will be crucial.

Who might be able to help pick up the slack offensively and what are the chances this actually pans out?

Home/Virginia Cavaliers