Dayton Basketball: Can Obi Toppin lead Flyers to 2020 NCAA Tournament?

Dayton Basketball took a step forward last season but failed to make the NCAA Tournament. Can Obi Toppin and the Flyers get to the next level this season?

It was always going to be hard for Dayton Basketball head coach Anthony Grant to fill the shoes of Archie Miller. But after going 14-17 in 2017-18, 21-12 last season and there being reason for optimism heading into the 2019-20 campaign, things look headed in the right direction.

(Credit to KenPom, Hoop-Math, DribbleHandoff, and Sports-Reference for statistics and ACC Digital Network and Dayton Flyers for GIFS) 

Dayton returns 70.8% of minutes from last season per Barttorvik (84th in nation). After earning a 5-seed in the NIT, the Flyers have their eyes set on a greater goal this year: an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Things won’t be easy, however. Dayton will have to contend in the A-10 with the likes of VCU and Davidson, ESPN’s preseason bracketology has them in the “First Four Out,” and Barttorvik’s “computer ranking” is only 48th.

Dominance Near The Rim

In the midst of Dayton’s moderately successful 2018-19 season, the Flyers were elite in one area: field goal percentage at the rim. Per hoop-math, Dayton’s 72.4% ranked 2nd in the entire nation behind Iowa State’s 75.0% (BYU, UNC and Gonzaga ranked 3rd-5th).

This efficiency wasn’t done on limited attempts either, as the Flyers ranked 69th in percentage of total shots at the rim (40.4%). Dayton actually had success everywhere inside the arc, as it also ranked 2nd nationally in 2-point percentage.

Not only was Dayton’s overall efficiency very strong (8th in effective FG%), the Flyers generated a ton of quality shot attempts. Per DribbleHandoff’s “ShotQ” metric that quantifies a team’s shot quality, the Flyers ranked 3rd last season behind Gonzaga and Belmont.

Dayton’s offense ranked 43rd overall last season per KenPom and was held back by turnovers, a lack of offensive rebounds and subpar 3-point shooting. If these areas can see some moderate improvement, Dayton’s efficiency and shot quality could realistically make them a top 25 offense.

Obi Toppin

A lot of Dayton’s aforementioned offensive efficiency can be credited to 6-8 forward Obi Toppin. The New York native was a late bloomer in high school due to a growth spurt that shot him up from 6-2 his junior season to 6-5 his senior season (now 6-8). He garnered offers from Dayton, Rhode Island, Mississippi State and Illinois and upon choosing the Flyers, redshirted his first season in 2017-18.

Toppin took the A-10 by storm last season as a redshirt freshman. He not only was named the A-10 Rookie of the Year, but was the first freshman named First Team All A-10 since Rhode Island’s Lamar Odom in 1999.

Coming off a great season, Toppin went through the NBA Draft process but ultimately decided to return to Dayton. Early 2020 mock drafts have varying opinions on the forward ranging from undrafted to 23rd in the 1st round.

Most of Toppin’s production came at the rim, where he attempted 61.3% of his shots and made a blistering 80.0%. He was 6th nationally with an effective FG% of 68.4% and ranked 28th in 2-point percentage at 67.6%. Dunks tend to be pretty efficient shots, and Toppin ranked 2nd nationally with 83 last season.

His efficiency was the driver of a historic statistical profile. From 1992-93 to 2018-19, only 17 players have had the following statistical profile per sports-reference: >= 67.6% 2-point FG%, >=14.4 points per game, >=1.8 assists per game, and >=5.6 rebounds per game. Toppin was one of them, with the list including Chris Webber, Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball.

Most of his buckets at the rim were assisted (66.2%), which was in line with the team as a whole. 52.8% of Dayton’s total shots at the rim were assisted last season, ranking 21st in nation.

Toppin’s more than just a dunker; he flashed a 3-point shot on limited attempts, making 11-21 (52.4%). He’s an effective pick-and-roll player that has thrived in simple dribble handoffs like above but is capable of more.

Toppin is primed to be Dayton’s best player next season, but the Flyers have a roster deep with talent that includes returning players, several transfers and a freshman. There are a lot of “upside’ players that have significant potential, and if Dayton hits on a few, it could really surprise some people.

Jalen Crutcher

The 6-1 junior guard averaged 13.2 points and a team-high 5.7 assists last season. He ranked 105th in assist rate, 40th in percent of minutes played (36.5 per game) and 22nd in fewest fouls per 40 minutes (demonstrates ability to defend without fouling). Dayton as a whole had the 5th lowest foul rate of any team in the nation last season. Crutcher is also a capable 3-point shooter (36.3%) and generated a lot of Toppin’s looks around the basket.

Ryan Mikesell

Mikesell will be on of two seniors on the roster this season alongside Trey Landers. The 6-7 forward redshirted in 2017-18 after undergoing hip surgeries but took a promising step last season, increasing his scoring average from 5.7 to 10.1 and mirroring Toppin’s impressive efficiency. He recorded the 23rd best 2-point percentage in the nation at 68.1% and was 69th in true shooting percentage.

Trey Landers

At 6-5, Landers is listed as a guard, but it is his contributions on the interior that are likely the most important. The senior led Dayton in rebounds per game last season and was also the best rebounder by advanced metrics.

Chase Johnson

The Florida transfer is currently the highest-ranked recruit on the roster (98th in 2017 per ESPN). He only played six games in two seasons with the Gators, partially due to concussions and the fact he transferred halfway through last season (was ineligible to play due to NCAA transfer restrictions). He has 2.5 seasons of eligibility left.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Johnson due to his limited time on the court, but the potential is definitely there. He might be the highest variance player in terms of forecasting the Flyers’ roster.

Ibi Watson

Watson is a former 3-star recruit that played his first two seasons at Michigan before transferring and sitting out last season. The 6-5 wing only averaged 5.2 minutes and 2.2 points his sophomore year but was competing with a talented Wolverines roster that reached the national title game. The statistics and the recruiting pedigree might not be there, but there’s a lot of optimism around the redshirt junior, with some seeing a starting role potentially in the cards.

Rodney Chatman

Chatman sat out last season after transferring from Chattanooga. The 6-1 guard averaged 13.3 points his sophomore season and has two seasons of eligibility left with the Flyers. Chatman could potentailly push Crutcher for the starting point guard spot, but it is more likely that he’ll function as a solid backup. It’s not inconceivable both could share the floor, however, as Chatman projects as a capable 3-point shooter when playing off the ball (33.9%).

Dwayne Cohill

Cohill is a former 4-star recruit that emerged as one of the team’s best defenders in 15.4 minutes per game last season. The 6-2 sophomore provides yet another player with upside for the Flyers.

Jhery Matos

Matos played his first two seasons at Eastern Florida State and Monroe College before transferring to Dayton (averaged 17.7 points his sophomore season). The redshirt junior only played six games with the Flyers last season due to an injury but projects as a strong defender with some decent offensive abilities.

Jordy Tshimanga

Tshimanga is a former 3-star recruit that played two seasons at Nebraska before transferring and sitting out last season. At 6-11, the big-man was decent in limited minutes (13.6 per game), and his size clearly gives him significant upside.

Moulaye Sissoko

Sissoko is a 3-star freshman that received offers from the likes of Florida, Cincinnati and Xavier. At 6-9, the forward has potential down the road but could be redshirted due to his inexperience and the depth of the roster.

Conclusion

The final two projected starting spots alongside Toppin, Coppin and Mikesell are up in the air and it seems almost the entire roster has a shot at claiming them.

Anthony Grant hasn’t utilized his bench much in recent seasons, ranking 336th and 326th the last two seasons in bench minutes. But with the depth of talent on the roster, there’s a strong argument to be made that he should adjust this approach. Since there is also so much potential among individual players, it seems imprudent to not give everyone a decent chance to shine.

Dayton might not have any “star” players beyond maybe Toppin, but it seems the depth and upside of its roster are being underrated nationally. If Grant gives everyone ample opportunities early on in the season, it seems likely a “surprise” player or two will emerge, and if this happens, an NCAA Tournament birth would seem very much in the cards.