Harvard Basketball: Crimson primed for breakthrough 2019-20 season

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FULLERTON, CA – NOVEMBER 26: Austen Awosika #10 of the Cal State Fullerton Titans defends Corey Johnson #25 of the Harvard Crimson in the second half of the game at the Titan Gym on November 26, 2017 in Fullerton, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Experienced Roster

Harvard returns 96.4% of last season’s minutes per Barttorvik, second in the nation behind only Illinois Chicago (only seven teams have >=90% of minutes returning). The core of the team’s roster has really grown together, as evident by KenPom’s “minutes continuity” rankings (measure similarity of team’s minutes one season to next; teams that return more contributors will rank higher in this metric).

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Despite having only the 258th most experienced roster last season, the Crimson ranked 56th in minutes continuity. This ranking has improved over the last few seasons as Harvard’s younger players have gotten an abundance of experience playing together. The Crimson could very well be top ten in continuity in 2019-20.

Of the eleven players most likely to receive minutes for Harvard this season, there are six seniors, two juniors, a sophomore and a freshman. A potential starting lineup of Bryce Aiken, Seth Towns, Noah Kirkwood, Justin Bassey and Chris Lewis would be quite formidable.

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Utilizing The Bench

Not all eleven of the above players will see significant minutes, but due to the team’s strong depth, many will see substantial time on the court. Last season’s team was deep as well, and Tommy Amaker took advantage by using bench minutes at the 10th highest rate in the country (New Mexico State 1st). With arguably even more depth this season, Harvard will likely use a similar approach.

It speaks well of Amaker that he’s been willing to adapt to his roster because he hasn’t always instituted a “high bench minutes” approach (167th in 2017-18 and 131st in 2016-17). There are arguments for and against this strategy, but if a team’s depth is strong, it’s hard to argue with it.

Strengths And Weaknesses

Harvard finished 114th in KenPom last season, 150th offensively and 99th defensively. The team’s top strength was probably defensive rebounding, where the Crimson ranked 13th nationally. Long-range shooting was solid as well, as Harvard took threes at the 91st highest rate and made an 87th best 36.1%.

The team’s returning long-range arsenal will include Towns (43.7% two seasons ago), Aiken (39.8%), Kirkwood (39.4%), Djuricic (37.0%) Bassey (32.9%) and Christian Juzang (36.6%).

The offense would have ranked much better if it wasn’t for the team’s main weakness: turnovers. Harvard had the 18th worst turnover rate (22.6%) in the country among 353 teams. Bryce Aiken, Noah Kirkwood and Chris Lewis were among the worst culprits, but it was a “team effort.” Other weaknesses included being only 300th in assist percentage and 228th in 2-point percentage (48.5%).

The 2019-20 Harvard squad won’t be perfect, but with all the returning talent, the Crimson should be a really strong team. It will enter the season as the Ivy League front-runner, with Penn as likely its top competitor.

No one on the roster has appeared in the NCAA Tournament, and with multiple near misses, the six seniors, in particular, will surely do everything they can to breakthrough. It’s worth taking a closer look at the Harvard roster, for the Crimson might be in for a special season.