Cincinnati Basketball: Projecting new-look Bearcats for 2019-20 season
Cincinnati Basketball have struggled to break through in the postseason. Can new head coach John Brannen steer the program in a better direction?
Over the last decade or so, Cincinnati Basketball has become known for two things: stingy defenses and underperforming in the NCAA Tournament. It’s been hard to be too critical of former head coach Mick Cronin, as the Bearcats have competed year in and year out (made tournament 9/9 seasons under Cronin). Still, with Cronin leaving for UCLA in the offseason, it’s worth considering whether new head coach John Brannen could be the change the program needs to improve its postseason results.
(Credit to KenPom, sports-reference, Barttorivk and hoops-math for statistics and CincinnatiBearcats and Big Ten Network for GIFS)
Defense, Defense, Defense
As mentioned, Cincinnati has been known for its staunch defenses. Prior to last season, the Bearcats had a defense ranked 17th or better six straight years (28th last season). Every coach would be thrilled to have defenses of this caliber, but some feel the program’s defensive-first style has not been a recipe for NCAA Tournament success. Plenty of defensive-strength teams have performed well in the tournament (Virginia, Texas Tech last season), but Cincinnati’s inability to break through in March can’t just be ignored.
The Bearcats have only had one offense inside the top 40 over the last six seasons, and it’s possible the Brannen hire could represent a shift towards a more offensive-minded program.
"“It’s a totally different hire at UC,” said CBS college basketball analyst Steve Wolf regarding the Brannen hire. “It’s a totally different personality. This is an offensive guy. Yes, he’ll have defense first, but they will attract different type of people there who will not only play hard but will be fundamentally sound on the offensive end.”"
Brannen spent four seasons as head coach at Northern Kentucky, making the tournament in 2016-17 as a 15-seed and 2018-19 as a 14-seed (lost in 1st round both times). His teams have been fairly balanced but slightly more offensively inclined (130th offense, 178th defense). Specifically, they’ve shot a lot of threes (101st in 3PT rate) and been efficient inside the arc (27th in 2PT%). Defensively, Brannen’s teams have guarded the 3-point line very well (49th in 3PT%).
Program In Transition?
If the goal is indeed to make the team more offensive-focused, there are two factors that might aid this transition. First, the Bearcats return their three leading scorers in Jarron Cumberland (18.8 ppg), Keith Williams (9.9) and Tre Scott (9.3). Second, the transition may have already (whether intentionally or not) began last season. Last year’s team had the program’s second-best offense and worst defense in the last six seasons. Brannen will obviously strive to be great on both ends of the floor, but if an offensive emphasis is desired, it might not be as difficult to pull off as some might think.
Forecasting 2019-20
Looking ahead to the upcoming season, the Bearcats have some holes to fill despite returning their top three scorers. Cincinnati returns only 52.2% of minutes from last season (227th nationally), driven by the losses of Cane Broome and Justin Jenifer to graduation and Nysier Brooks to transfer (Miami).
The Bearcats are unlikely to start the season in the Top 25, but will be among the preseason favorites in the American and are currently projected as a 11-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. It’s worth exploring the roster that will look to finally break through in the 2020 NCAA Tournament.