Busting Brackets
Fansided

Saint Mary’s Basketball: Can Gaels contend in WCC for 2019-20 season?

By Jacob Zinkula

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 05: Head coach Randy Bennett of the Saint Mary's Gaels looks on during a semifinal game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament against the Brigham Young Cougars at the Orleans Arena on March 5, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Cougars won 85-72. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 05: Head coach Randy Bennett of the Saint Mary's Gaels looks on during a semifinal game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament against the Brigham Young Cougars at the Orleans Arena on March 5, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Cougars won 85-72. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
1 of 3
Next
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 12: Jordan Hunter (L) #1 and Jordan Ford #3 of the Saint Mary’s Gaels hold up the trophy as the team celebrates defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs 60-47 to win the championship game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena on March 12, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 12: Jordan Hunter (L) #1 and Jordan Ford #3 of the Saint Mary’s Gaels hold up the trophy as the team celebrates defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs 60-47 to win the championship game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament at the Orleans Arena on March 12, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

Saint Mary’s Basketball has long been in the shadow of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. What are the chances things change in 2019-20?

It feels like every season brings the same story and questions for Saint Mary’s Basketball, and this could be the case again in 2019-20. The Gaels will likely be a solid team but are projected to finish behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. It’s unclear whether the team will have a strong enough at-large resume if it falls short in the conference tournament. This dynamic probably sounds familiar to Gaels fans.

(Credit to KenPom, sports-reference, Barttorvik and hoops-math for statistics and ESPN and NCAA March Madness for GIFS)

Could things change this season? With Gonzaga likely to be a top ten team in the preseason AP Poll, the Gaels will have a tough time surpassing them in the WCC. There are two other goals, however, that should be within grasp: (1) earning an at-large NCAA Tournament bid and (2) making a multi-round postseason run.

Since Bennett became head coach prior to the 2001-02 season, the Gaels have made seven tournament appearances (four at-large, three conference tournament bids). The program has failed to have a “breakthrough” tournament run under Bennett, however, with a Sweet 16 appearance in 2009-10 the farthest the Gaels have advanced (1959 Elite Eight appearance farthest in program history).

gaels3
gaels3 /

Despite limited tournament success and the apparent steadiness of the program, Bennett seems to have the Gaels trending in a positive direction.  Saint Mary’s has been ranked in the preseason AP Poll twice in the 21st century (2016-17 and 2017-18) and has finished top 40 in KenPom seven times in the same time span (each of last four seasons).

gaels1
gaels1 /

The Gaels should check both boxes again this season, as the team returns 87.4% of minutes from last season per Barttorvik (17th in nation, lose Jordan Hunter to graduation). Early preseason rankings placing them in the range of 17-26 and ESPN’s early Bracketology projects a 5-seed. This seeding would be the best in program history, suggesting this might be the Gaels’ best chance since 1959 to make real noise in March.

Team Profile

The Gaels have become known for their strong offenses, boasting a top 25 offense each of the last four seasons (23, 11, 14, 17). The defenses have fluctuated in this span from 96th to 26th to 137th to 55th last season. Another strong offense can be expected in 2019-20, but if Saint Mary’s wants this season to be truly different, it will likely need to scrape its way to at least a top 50-75 defense.

Over roughly the past five seasons, Bennett has really slowed down the pace offensively, with the team ranking 341st or slower in pace each of the last four seasons. This has helped Saint Mary’s wear down opposing defenses, and the team’s lower possession games could aid upset attempts down the road.

Additionally, the Gaels have been among the best in the nation in 3-point shooting, ranking 32nd, 5th, 15th and 6th in 3-point percentage the last four seasons. As noted, Saint Mary’s has had its issues defensively, but there are a few areas of strength on this end of the floor. Its limited opposing 3-point attempts, ranking 9th, 13th, 6th and 48th over the past four seasons and has been strong on the defensive glass (10th, 7th, 2nd, 53rd).

Random team tidbit: Saint Mary’s ranked 18th in 2-foul participation last season per KenPom (24th, 117th, 49th seasons prior). This statistic measures the degree to which coaches are willing to keep players on the floor after they register their second foul. Many feel coaches are too cautious when it comes to this decision, which if true, would speak well of Bennett’s coaching.

If there’s one player that will be most responsible for the team’s profile and potential success next season, it will likely be senior guard Jordan Ford.