Illinois Basketball: Can Ayo Dosunmo lead the Illini to the postseason?

Casual college basketball fans likely haven’t even heard of Ayo Dosunmo. This could change in a hurry, however, if the guard has the season many expect.

Under-the-radar

There might not be a better player in the country this upcoming season that is as under the radar as Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmo. Hardcore college basketball fans and NBA scouts surely know how talented the 6-5 sophomore is, but it shouldn’t take long into the 2019-20 season for him to start receiving broader recognition.

(Credit to KenPom, hoops-math, sports-reference and Barttorvik for statistics and Big Ten Network for GIFS)

Why is he under the radar? Dosunmo played for a 12-21 Illini team last season that didn’t come close to the NCAA Tournament. Although he was a 4-star recruit and 36th overall in his class per ESPN, he didn’t have a high enough profile to garner attention on a “bad” team (e.g. Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz).

All-around player

Dosunmo’s lack of recognition doesn’t change the fact that his freshman season was quite impressive. He was named to the Big Ten All-Freshman Team, was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten and was the first true freshman in school history to lead the team in scoring at 13.8 ppg. Dosunmo also leads the Illini in assists (third in rebounding, second in steals).

Furthermore, he was the only freshman in the nation last season to post the following statistical profile (per sports-reference): points per game >= 13.8, rebounds per game >= 4.0, assists per game >= 3.3 AND 3-point percentage >= 35.2%. Only 21 freshmen have put up these numbers since the 1992-93 season, including several notable future NBA players like Chauncey Billups and James Harden.

The Chicago native can do a little bit of everything, from scoring to rebounding to playmaking. His ball-handling and quick first-step put a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. Dosunmo is dangerous in transition as well and can effectively “drive and dish.”

His scoring can come from inside-and-out; Dosunmo attempted 35.6% of his shots at the rim (made 64.7%) and 38.0% from long-range (made 35.2%, 82.0% assisted). His jump shot still has some room from improvement, but he has a quick release that should serve him well going forward. Dosumno can become even more dynamic if he gets more comfortable taking and making 3-pointers off-the-dribble.

The sophomore might still be under the radar, but he’s starting to get attention in some channels. He passed on the NBA, but he’s getting buzz as legitimate 1st round NBA prospect (projected 19th in one 2020 mock).

Additionally, he was named a 3rd-team preseason All-American by CBS and placed 42nd in Three Man Weave’s top-100 player rankings.

Projecting the Illini

In what will be head coach Brad Underwood’s third season with the program (previously at Oklahoma State, Stephen F. Austin), the Illini will be searching for their first tournament appearance since 2013.

Inexperience was part of the problem last season (311th per KenPom), but the team returns 81.6% of minutes per Barttorvik (32nd nationally). Along with Dosunmo, key returning pieces include junior guard Trent Frazier, sophomore forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili, and senior guard Andres Feliz.

Illinois finished 84th in KenPom last season, 83rd offensively and 108th defensively. The team’s strength was forcing turnovers, where it ranked 24th nationally. The defense sped up opposing offenses, contributing to the team playing at the 52nd fastest tempo.

The Illini’s weaknesses included defensive rebounding (307th), 2-point defense (250th) and foul rate (338th, somewhat understandable given team’s aggressive defense).

Illinois won’t be ranked in the preseason, but early prognostications suggest it has a shot at making theNCAA Tournament. ESPN’s early Bracketology has the Illini on the outside looking in, but we at Busting Brackets have them projected to make the First Four as an 11-seed.

If Illinois does manage to breakthrough, Ayo Dosunmo will likely be the number one reason why.